摘要
利用脱钩弹性分析方法评价淮河流域内河南、安徽、江苏和山东各区域用水量和经济发展之间的脱钩状态,分析各省的脱钩发展趋势,对比总体脱钩状况。同时,利用完全分解模型把用水量驱动力分解为人口效应、经济规模效应和技术效应,分析三大效应对用水量的具体影响。结果表明:淮河流域内各区域具有不稳定且状况较差的脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩的变化过程,脱钩状态随时间发展逐渐改善;各区域总体脱钩状况存在差异性:山东>江苏>河南>安徽;同时,三大效应的贡献率大小为:经济规模效应>技术效应>人口效应,经济发展因素主要增加用水量,技术因素抑制用水量。因此,应把握好经济规模效应和技术效应,努力改善经济发展结构,提高技术效应强度,以达到强脱钩的理性状态。
This paper analyzed the each region of decoupling trends and evaluated the overall decoupling status of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong Provinces in the Huaihe Basin by using the method of decoupling elasticity. At the same time, the driving forces of the water consumption were decomposed into population effect, economic effect and technical effect and influences of these effects were also analyzed. The results showed, firstly, the decoupling state of each region was gradually improved in the Huaihe Basin in the process of unstable and poor decoupling - weak decou- piing - strong decoupling. Secondly, the overall decoupling states in the Huaihe Basin had regional differences ： Shandong 〉 Jiangsu 〉 Henan 〉 Anhui. Thirdly, the contribution rate of the three effects on water consumption were ： Economic effect 〉 technical effect 〉 population effect, the economic devel- opment became the dominant driving force to increase the water consumption, the technical effect restrained the water consumption and population had little effect on water consumption. Consequently, we should focus on the economic effect and technical effect to improve the intensity of technical effect and optimize the structure of economy in order to achieve strong decoupling.
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2017年第10期1176-1182,共7页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然基金青年项目"基于奈特不确定性理论的流域水资源脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究"(编号:71403122)
江苏省自然基金青年项目"流域水资源关键脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究(编号:BK20140980)
教育部人文社科基金青年项目"基于影响因素风险预测的流域水资源脆弱性分析与适应性治理研究(编号:14YJC630018)
关键词
用水量
脱钩弹性分析方法
驱动力分解
淮河流域
water consumption
decoupling elastic analysis method
driving force decomposition
Huaihe Basin
