摘要
为更全面、更真实地表达工程项目风险信息,提高工程项目风险因素排序结果的准确性,针对具有信息灰性、模糊性和语言描述性的工程项目风险因素排序问题,运用区间灰度表达灰性,运用隶属度表达模糊性,运用不确定语言变量表达语言描述性。在区间灰色模糊不确定语言集的基础上,结合C-OWA算子,建立工程项目风险因素排序模型,用于预测主要风险因素。以南京市纬三路过江隧道为例验证所建模型的可行性。研究结果表明,相比模糊集只能利用隶属度表达模糊性,区间灰色模糊不确定语言集不仅可以利用隶属度表达模糊性,还可以利用区间灰度和不确定语言变量表达灰性和语言描述性,这有助于提高实际工程项目风险信息表达的全面性和真实性,进而提高工程项目风险因素排序结果的准确性,帮助项目管理者更准确地了解主要风险因素,为采取针对性的风险预控措施提供理论依据。
In order to express construction project risk information more comprehensively and authentically and improve the accuracy of construction project risk factors ranking result,in terms of the risk factors ranking problem with information grey,fuzziness and linguistic description,interval grey degree is used to express grey,membership degree is used to express fuzziness,and uncertain linguistic variable is used to express linguistic description. The construction project risk factors ranking model is established to estimate the main risk factors based on interval grey fuzzy uncertain linguistic set and C-OWA operator. Taking the Weft Three Road Cross-river Tunnel in Nanjing for example,the feasibility of the proposed model is verified.The research result shows that compared with fuzzy set that only can use membership degree to express fuzziness,interval grey fuzzy uncertain linguistic set not only can use membership degree to express the fuzziness,but also can use interval grey degree and uncertian linguistic variable to express the grey and linguistic description. It helps to improve the comprehensiveness and authenticity of practical construction project risk information expression,and then improve the accuracy of risk factors ranking result,which helps project managers to more exactly know the main risk factors,and provides a theoretical basis for taking welldirected risk pre-control measures.
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第9期93-99,共7页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71401019)
国家社会科学基金项目(15CGL051)
重庆市社会科学规划项目(2011YBGL112)