摘要
基于海洋经济增长与资源消耗"脱钩"的内涵,利用改进的Tapio脱钩模型和GIS空间分析技术研究了中国海洋经济增长与资源消耗脱钩关系的时空格局演变规律,引入无残差完全分解模型对中国沿海11省份海洋经济增长中海洋资源消耗的回弹效应进行分解分析,结果表明:(1)1997-2006年中国海洋资源消耗量随海洋经济增长而不断增加,海洋经济增长对资源的依赖性较高;2006-2014年海洋资源消耗量增长趋势减缓,海洋经济增长正逐步实现与海洋资源消耗的脱钩。(2)1997-2014年广东、山东、浙江、江苏、天津、福建、辽宁、河北海洋经济增长与资源消耗之间以弱脱钩为主,上海海洋经济增长与资源消耗之间以强脱钩为主,海南、广西海洋经济增长与资源消耗之间以扩张负脱钩为主,到2014年脱钩显著的区域呈现空间集聚的态势。(3)规模效应、人口效应对海洋资源消耗具有正向作用,而强度效应对海洋资源消耗具有抑制作用,着力提高技术效率、适度控制人口规模、合理调控海洋经济发展规模是实现海洋经济增长与资源消耗"脱钩"的关键。
Based on the connotation of decoupling marine economic growth and resource consumption,we researched temporal and spatial pattern evolution laws of the decoupling relationship between China＇s marine economic growth and resource consumption based on an improved Tapio decoupling model and GIS. We introduced the complete decomposition model without residual to perform a decomposition analysis on the rebound effect of marine resource consumption in the marine economic growth of 11 coastal provinces. We found that China＇s marine resource consumption had constantly increased with marine economic growth from 1997 to 2006,and marine economic growth was highly dependent on resources. The growth trend in marine resource consumption was slowed along with rapid growth of China＇s marine economy from 2006 to 2014,and marine economic growth gradually decoupled from marine resource consumption. As viewed from coastal provinces,the decoupling relationship between marine economic growth and resource consumption showed significant differences in coastal areas from 1997 to 2014. From 1997 to 2014,the relationship between marine economic growth and resource consumption was dominated by weak decoupling in Guangdong,Shandong,Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Tianjin,Fujian,Liaoning and Hebei;strong decoupling in Shanghai;and expanded negative decoupling in Hainan and Guangxi. Marine economic growth in Hainan and Guangxi still relied on marine resources. In 2014,areas with significant decoupling showed trends in spatial agglomeration. The scale effect and population effect promoted the consumption of marine resources,while the intensity effect had an inhibitory effect. The keys to achieving decoupling between marine economic growth and resource consumption are improving technical efficiency,controlling the population size and regulating the development scale of the marine economy.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第9期1658-1669,共12页
Resources Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41671119)
教育部重大项目(16JJD790021)
关键词
海洋经济增长
资源消耗
脱钩分析
回弹效应
marine economic growth
marine resource consumption
decoupling analysis
rebound effect
