摘要
本文运用1981-2012年的投入产出时间序列数据,建立二次型可变成本函数模型,估计了中国国民经济33个产业部门的能源、非能源以及劳动的联立系统方程,并据此构建了各产业部门产能利用率的测度模型,进而考察了各类要素价格、投资以及技术进步对各产业部门产能利用率的影响。研究结果表明:(1)多数产业部门的能源和劳动价格对产能利用率的影响为正,但影响大小不尽相同;整体而言,劳动价格的影响相对更大;1990年后,能源和劳动投入的价格对制造业各产业部门产能利用率的影响都为正。(2)技术进步对产能利用率的影响方向不确定。(3)资本使用者成本较低的部门,其产能利用率也较低,产能过剩现象更为明显。(4)投资的内在调整会降低产能利用率。
Using the input-output time series data from 1981 to 2012, this paper establishes a quadratic from variable cost model, and estimates a system of simultaneous equations （ including energy, non- energy and labor） for the thirty-three sectors of China. Based on this, it measures the capacity utilization rates for these sectors and explores their effects on various factor prices, investment and technological progress. The results are as follows. First, the effects of energy and labor prices on capacity utilization for most sectors are positive. The degree of the effects varies and labor prices have relatively larger impact. Moreover, the effects of energy and labor prices on capacity utilization for all sectors of the manufacturing industry are positive during the whole period between 1981 and 2012. Second, the direction of the effect of technological progress on capacity utilization is uncertain. Third, sectors with lower capital usage costs have lower capacity utilization and more severe excess capacity. The last but not the least, the inherent adjustment of investment will reduce capacity utilization.
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期3-26,共24页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目"能源价格波动
信息化投资和技术进步对我国低碳经济增长的影响--基于IGEM与微观模拟联结模型的研究"(71573291)
国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA009)的资助
关键词
要素价格变化
技术进步
产能利用率
factor prices change
technological progress
capacity utilization
