摘要
海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性研究的最终目的是实现海洋经济的可持续发展.基于海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性的内涵构建海洋生态经济系统评价指标体系,运用模糊综合评判法、3E协调度函数、BP人工神经网络预测模型等,对环渤海地区2006—2012年海洋生态经济系统的脆弱性与协调性及空间差异进行了定量分析,并对2015—2024年海洋生态经济系统的脆弱性与协调性进行了动态模拟,对环渤海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性与协调性进行动态模拟研究,结果表明:(1)2006—2012年,环渤海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性在波动中微降(较重脆弱—中度脆弱)且空间分异明显,整体呈现出"双环"的空间结构.(2)2006—2012年,环渤海地区海洋生态经济系统协调性变化较小,呈轻度失调状态,其中,经济子系统与生态子系统协调度不断降低,而经济子系统与社会子系统、生态子系统与社会子系统的协调性均呈上升态势,环渤海各地区间的内部差异也较为显著.(3)2015—2024年,环渤海地区海洋生态经济系统脆弱性仍不容乐观,长期处于中度脆弱与较重脆弱水平之间;环渤海地区海洋生态经济系统协调性整体呈上升态势,发展势态良好.
The ultimate goal of studying marine ecological and economic systems＇ vulnerability and coordination is to help establish sustainable development of marine economies.Based on the above connotation,this paper first constructs an index system for marine economic systems,and then gives a quantitative analysis to the marine ecological and economic system＇s vulnerability,coordination,temporal and spatial variation from the year 2006 to 2012,also gives a dynamic simulation to this area from the year 2015 to 2024.The methods include fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,3Ecoordination function and BP artificial neural networks.The findings include：（1）from 2006 to 2012,the marine ecological and economic system＇s vulnerability declined slightly（from severe vulnerability to moderate vulnerability）and significant spatial differentiation was found.（2）from 2006 to 2012,the marine ecological and economic system＇s coordination changed slightly,showing a situation of mild maladjustment.To be specific,the vulnerability between the economic subsystem and ecological subsystem continuously declined,while the vulnerabilities,both between the economic subsystem and social subsystem and between the ecological subsystem and social subsystem,increased continuously.（3）for the years from 2015 to 2024,the marine ecological and economic system＇s vulnerability will not be so optimistic,and be expected to maintain a moderate to severe situation,while the marine ecological and economic system＇s coordination will increase,showing an optimistic trend.
作者
伏捷
孙才志
彭飞
FU Jie SUN Caizhi PENG Fei(College of Urban and Environmental Science, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Cbina Center for Studies of Marine Economy and Sustainable Development, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, China)
出处
《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第3期395-406,共12页
Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学青年基金资助项目(41601114)
教育部人文社会科学青年基金资助项目(16YJC790080)
关键词
环渤海地区
海洋生态经济系统
脆弱性
协调性
BP神经网络
Bohai region
the marine ecological and economic system
vulnerability
coordination
BP artificial neural network
