摘要
本文依据"欧洲晴雨表"的民意调查数据,对2005-2016年欧盟成员国公众的涉欧认知及其促动因素进行了系统考察。数据回归结果表明,宏观经济因素对公众的涉欧立场普遍具有较为显著的影响效力,但不同人群对欧盟政策性输出的感知程度有差异,其中对欧盟持比较认同和比较不认同立场者的反应性最强,持完全认同和完全不认同立场人群的反应性总体上最低,中立者在某些条件下的反应性强于完全认同和完全不认同者群体。总体来看,促进一体化的经济绩效依然是平抑民粹主义反欧浪潮的有效途径。因此,欧盟未来主要面临以下三大问题与挑战:一是联盟的决策如何有效避免国家主权主义与联邦主义者的过度干扰;二是如何在比较认同与比较不认同者之间寻找相对均衡的政策着力点;三是如何进一步强化对中立群体的政策投放。显然,欧盟的未来仍离不开精英的贡献,但根本上取决于绝大多数公众的认同与支持。只要联盟的政策性输出更加贴近多数公众的需求,英国脱欧及民粹主义反欧政党的崛起就不会对联盟构成解体的威胁。
The regression results of the Eurobarometer data of 28 EU member states between 2005 and2016 show that a country's macroeconomic performances have obvious effects on the public opinion towards EU. However,the citizens' reflexivity to the macroeconomic factors differs substantially. The fairly positive and fairly negative groups have the highest level of reflexivity towards the EU's macroeconomic policies,while the citizens who are very positive and very negative towards the EU show the lowest reflexivity to the spill-over of EU's policies.The neutral group 's reflexivity to the macroeconomic factors is,in some circumstances,stronger than that of the very positives and very negatives. Three major conclusions have been reached in this paper. First,the EU's policy-making in the macroeconomic field should avoid the interference from both the sovereigntists and federalists as much as possible. Second,the EU's future policies should focus on striking a balance between the demands and expectations of the fairly positives and fairly negatives. Third,the EU's future policies should target more on the neutral group.
出处
《欧洲研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第4期76-98,共23页
Chinese Journal of European Studies
基金
国家社科基金一般项目"西方马克思主义论域中的欧洲一体化研究"(批准号:12BGJ021)的相关研究成果
