摘要
科学预测我国纸消费量对指导行业发展规划,促进造纸工业有序、有条、有效发展,更好满足人们日益增长的对纸的需求具有重要意义.将灰色预测方法与马尔科夫理论结合,能有效提高预测的精度.运用灰色马尔科夫模型预测我国纸和纸板的消费量,发挥两种方法的优势,取得了较为理想的效果.模型的平均预测误差为0.904%,比GM(1,1)模型的平均预测误差3.216%减小71.89%.
It is important to scientifically predict the consumption of paper in China to promote the ei- fective orderly planned development of the paper industry and better meet the growing demand for paper. The accuracy of the prediction can be effectively improved by the gray prediction method combined with the Markov theory. In this paper,the grey Markov model is used to predict the consumption of paper and paperboard in China,and the advantages of the two methods are achieved. The average prediction error of the model is 0. 904% ,which is 71.89% lower than the average prediction error 3. 216% of the GM （1,1） model.
出处
《徐州工程学院学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第3期28-33,42,共7页
Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology(Natural Sciences Edition)
基金
湖北省自然科学基金项目(2015CFB322)
