摘要
基于四川省大熊猫保护区周边947户农户的调查数据,运用Heckman Probit两阶段模型分析了林农气候变化感知与适应性行为选择;通过构建MNL模型,进一步探究林农选择各项适应性行为的影响因素。结果表明:气候变化感知是林农采取适应性行为的基础,年龄、文化程度和家庭受到自然灾害对林农的气候变化感知与适应性行为均有正向显著影响,而在保护区内的居住因素对其气候变化感知与适应性行为均有负向显著作用,林地面积、购买森林保险、借贷可获得性和接受保护区培训并未影响林农的气候变化感知,但对他们采取适应性措施具有显著正向作用。基于研究,提出提高林农教育水平、增强文化素质、提高抗灾能力、完善信贷服务体系、加强社区共管模式、开展保护区专项培训等建议。
Based on the survey data of 947 peasant households around the panda reserve in Sichuan Province, this paper analyzed the climate change perception and adaptive behavior selection of the forest farmers through the two - stage model of Heckman Probit. By constructing the MNL model, the authors further explored the influencing factors of the adaptive of the forest farmers. The results showed that the climate change perception was the foundation, and the forestry farmers＇ age, educational level and the natural disaster of family had a positive effect on climate change awareness and adaptive behaviors, while whether living in protected area were negative factors. Woodland area, accessible of the forest insurance, credit availability and whether reserving training did not affect the climate change awareness of farmers but had significant positive effect to the adaptive measures. Based on the research, it proposed to improve the level of education and enhance the cultural quality, improve the ability of disaster resistance and improve the credit service system, strengthen the community management model and carry out special training for the protected areas.
作者
陈俐静
段伟
吕素洁
温亚利
CHEN Li - jing DUAN Wei LU Su - jie WEN Ya - li(School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China School of Economics and Management, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China)
出处
《资源开发与市场》
CAS
CSSCI
2017年第11期1306-1311,共6页
Resource Development & Market
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"保护与发展:社区视角下协调机制研究"(编号:71373024)
关键词
气候变化
感知
适应性行为
林农
大熊猫保护区
climate change
perception
adaptive behavior
forestry farmer
giant panda reserve
