摘要
人地系统是人类社会与地理环境的耦合系统,属于典型的复杂系统。基于主体的模型(Agent-based models,ABM)作为研究复杂系统的重要工具,可以为人地系统研究提供新的方法支持。与传统模型不同,基于主体的模型更多的关注"人"的研究,注重体现人类主体行为决策在人地系统变化中的重要作用,并以一种空间显性的方式来表现人类活动对地理环境的动态影响。在总结回顾人地系统理论的基础上,介绍ABM的基本理论与技术,综述ABM在生态过程、生态系统管理和土地利用/覆被变化三个方向的应用及研究现状,分析概括ABM模拟中存在的主要问题,并对ABM未来发展的方向进行探讨。
As a typical complex system, man-land system is known as a coupled human and natural system. The complexity of man-land system can be divided into three critical dimensions- temporal complexity, spatial complexity and decision-making complexity. In modeling complex systems, traditional models are deficient in displaying data in multiple dimensions, and thus require additional research. Recent studies suggest that the agent-based models （ABM） would provide insights on exploratory analysis and serve as one of the key tools for complex system studies. In contrast to traditional models, ABM pays more attention to the study of ＇people＇, focusing on assessing the influence of human activities on the environment, and can reflect it in a spatially explicit way. The models usually contain three parts： （1） environmental layer, which is composed of natural/social attribute such as terrain slope, land price and traffic condition; （2） agent layer, consisting of one or more agent types with specific attributes; （3） behavior rule, standardizing the mutual consultation and decision-making mode of agents. ABM adopts a ＇bottom-up＇ approach by applying the relevant actors and decisions at the micro-level to producing an observable macro-phenomenon, and displaying high complexity values in three dimensions. Currently, ABM approaches are widely used to model human-environment interactions in various fields, including transportation, financial markets and tourism management. After the basic principles of agent-based simulation are briefly introduced, this paper reviews the application of ABM in ecological process, ecological resource management and land use/cover change. However, as a new method, ABM is still at an exploratory stage, faced by issues including replication potential, empirical parameterization and model validation, individual decision making, and integration with other models. Although there are many challenges, the recent developments reflect an encouraging trend towards developing a new methodology for dynamic spatial modeling of human-environment interactions. The outlook of ABM is promising.
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第10期1925-1935,共11页
Geographical Research
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2015CB452702)
国家自然科学基金项目(41571098
41371196
41530749)
中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-4)
中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院重大咨询项目(Y02015003)
