摘要
文章是在测算我国2000-2015年农村物流碳排放的基础上,通过STIRPAT随机模型研究影响农村物流碳排放的因素,并利用TAPIO模型从中国八大经济区视角分析了农村物流碳排放与地区经济增长的脱钩趋势。结果表明:地区经济是影响农村物流碳排放的首要因素,2006年之前中国整体呈现扩张负脱钩的状态,主要原因是"十五"期间国家通过各种措施大力发展经济,伴随着物流业及电子商务的发展,农村物流碳排放增长速率大于经济增长速度;2006年之后除了大西北、西南地区部分省份处于增长连接状态,大部分地区都实现了弱脱钩。
The paper, based on the estimation of carbon emissions of China;s rural logistics from 2000 to 2015, and studying the influen- tial factors of rural logistics carbon emissions by STIRPAT stochastic model, analyzes the decoupling trend of rural logistics carbon emissions and regional economic growth from the perspective of China＇s eight economic zones by applying the TAPIO model. The results show that the regional economy is the primary factor affecting rural logistics carbon emissions, China presents a state of expansive negative decoupling before 2006, the main reason is that the state vigorously develops the economy through various measures during the period of ＂the 10th Five-Year Plan＂, with the development of logistics and e-commerce, the growth rate of carbon emissions in rural logistics is greater than the rate of economic growth; In addition to the Northwest, some provinces in Southwest China are in a state of growth connection, the majority of regions have achieved a weak decoupling after 2006.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第11期51-56,共6页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71473213
71773104)
江苏省社会科学基金一般项目(16EYB002)
关键词
农村物流
碳排放
地区经济
脱钩趋势
rural logistics
carbon emissions
regional economy
decoupling trend
