摘要
利用石阡县2010—2014年18起降雨型滑坡事件对应的区域气象站以及气象台站逐小时降水资料,采用统计分析的方法分析了滑坡发生前后的降水类型,建立了临界雨量的预报模型。结果表明滑坡对应的暴雨类型均属于尖峰型降水,强降雨时间都较短。滑坡的降雨量度与历时关系的分析表明可以将小时雨量大于10 mm作为石阡县滑坡的起报必要条件。基于区域气象站资料建立的滑坡预报模型表明24 h雨量(前期3d雨量)与1 h最大雨量(3 h最大雨量)呈反相关关系。在滑坡预警预报中可以根据气象台的24 h雨量预报值(或前期3 d有效雨量)及1 h最大雨量(或3 h最大雨量)预报值就可以及时发出滑坡预警,从而在地质灾害防御中起到重要作用。
Using hourly precipitation data from automatic meteorological stations and meteorological observation stations according to 18 landslides from 2010 in Shiqian,the types of rainfall of the landslide were analyzed by using statistical analysis. The results show that the characteristics of the precipitation corresponding to the landslide have one or more peaked values. And the time of the heavy rainfall is short. Analysis of the relationship between the in- tensity and time of the rainfall indicates that the hour rainfall of landslide must be greater than 10ram at least in Shiqian. The model based on information from automatic meteorological stations indicates that a negative correlation between 24h rainfall （cumulative rainfall of the day landslide occurred） and lh maximum rainfall （3h maximum rainfall） occurred. Finally the prediction method of landslide in this area was discussed by using the predicted value of 24h rainfall （cumulative rainfall of the day landslide occurred） and lh maximum rainfall （3h maximum rain- fall）. And the landslide warning can be issued promptly which can play an important role in the prevention of geo- logical disasters.
作者
李忠燕
田其博
张东海
LI Zhongyan TIAN Qibo ZHANG Donghai(Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources of Guizhou Province,Guiyang 550002,China Guizhou Institute of Geo - environment Monitoring, Guiyang 550004, China)
出处
《贵州气象》
2017年第5期33-38,共6页
Journal of Guizhou Meteorology
基金
中国气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目:山洪灾害风险区划和影响预评估能力建设
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目2013031:贵州省气候变化影响评估及应对服务
贵州省气象局青年基金项目(黔气科合QN[2017]04号)
关键词
临界雨量
区域站
滑坡
预报模型
critical rainfall
automatic meteorological stations landslide
predicted model
