摘要
使用中山大学2014年CLDS(中国劳动力动态调查数据)的微观数据构建Probit模型,采用分样本回归法研究城乡居民养老保险、流动意愿与二孩生育意愿的关系,结果显示流动意愿、城乡居民养老保险对二孩生育意愿都有显著的负向影响;将社区是否有老年活动室和医院或诊所两个变量作为工具变量分析,结果显示城乡居民养老保险的投保将使二孩生育意愿下降19.9%,流动意愿每上升1个单位,二孩生育意愿降低4.78%;进而提出了优化养老保险产品以提倡多元化养老模式,促进城乡公共服务均等化以减轻农民的生计成本及负担,提升生育者的个人综合能力以增强其对生育成本的负担力,积极创建安全社区以增强邻里关系和谐度等政策建议。
With 2014 CLDS data,the construction of Probit model and ordinal Logit model,as well as the implementation of sub-sample regression analysis,this paper investigates the relationships between endowment insurance,liquidity will and fertility desire of the second child.Results show that endowment insurance and liquidity will have distinct negative effect on the fertility,while insurance weakens that impact of liquidity will.Fertility declined by 19.9% as endowment insurance hold,a declination of 16.0% appears as liquidity rises per unit.This paper comes to the conclusion that preferential policies should be carried out by the government to optimize public＇s concept of fertility,social insurance awareness should be strengthened,endowment insurance products and services should be improved,welfare of migrant workers should be enhanced and supporting services should be completed.
出处
《四川师范大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第6期62-70,共9页
Journal of Sichuan Normal University(Social Sciences Edition)
关键词
城乡居民养老保险
流动意愿
农村二孩生育意愿
urban and rural residents＇ endowment insurance
liquidity will
fertility desire ofthe second child
