摘要
采用我国1978-2014年城镇化率与就业比重的数据,在建立向量自回归模型的基础上对数据进行处理和检验,进行二者之间互动关系的深入分析。通过分析得出结论:我国城镇化率和第三产业就业比重之间存在长期均衡关系且互为格兰杰原因,两者之间呈现出较强的相互推动作用且对彼此的波动的贡献率均呈现逐渐上升趋势。依据研究结论,提出未来我国城镇化推进和第三产业发展的若干可行性建议。
We built an relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry in China with a In-depth analysis.The relationship based on vector regression model and press the data of urbanization and employment share from 1978 to 2014.Getting a conclusion：There is a long-terma balance relationship between urbanization and tertiary industry of China and become the granger reasons for eachother.Urbanization and tertiary industry of China have a strong interaction and the contribution to each other′s fluctuations are showing a rising trend.Finally According to the research conclusions,we put forward some feasible suggestions for the development of urbanization and the development of the third industry.
出处
《科技和产业》
2017年第7期5-10,126,共7页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41271143)
