摘要
中日韩三国是东亚典型的人口老龄化国家,日本老龄化程度最高,韩国老龄化速度最快,中国老龄化人口规模最大,人口老龄化对三国人力资本投资产生了重要影响。文章利用个体固定效应模型,对中日韩三国1971—2013年的面板数据进行研究,分析人口老龄化与人力资本投资的关系以及各国人口老龄化对人力资本投资的影响程度,发现三国的拟合图形呈现"倒U型",即人口老龄化对人力资本投资影响先正后负,转折的临界点在10%左右。当跨过临界点后,随着老龄化水平的不断加深,人力资本投资减少的速度将加快,当老龄化水平达到30%左右时,老龄化水平每提高1%,人力资本投资水平就会减少1%。同时,由于三国在公共教育支出规模、支出结构、区域分布等个体特征的差异,中国、韩国和日本分别处于倒U型的上升阶段、平稳阶段及下降阶段。日韩两国人口老龄化对公共教育支出发展呈现近似"倒U型"的趋势验证了公共资源存在代际竞争的结论。为了缓解老龄化对公共支出的挤出效应,两国都采取了很多措施,多年来形成了完善的政策制度体系。两国应对人口老龄化的经验丰富,但也存在许多教训。日韩两国老龄化对人力资本投资影响态势预示着中国未来可能的发展趋势。中国应借鉴日韩两国经验,在控制老龄化快速发展的同时,构建完善的老年人法律保护体系,维护老年人权益,协调公共资源分配,改善教育投入结构。加大人力资本投资,应对人口老龄化引发的人力资本投资趋向的可能改变,实现社会经济的持续发展。
China,Japan and South Korea are the typical population aging countries in East Asia,with the highest aging degree in Japan,the fastest aging in Korea and the largest aging population scale in China.Population aging has had a significant impact on the human capital investment in these three countries.In the paper,the entity fixed effect model was used to study panel data in China,Japan and South Korea in 1971-2013.By analyzing the relationship between the aging population and investment in human capital,as well as influence degree of the aging population in various counties on investment in human capital,it could be observed that fitting figures of three countries presented ‘inverted U＇.In other words,the aging population first had a positive influence on investment in human capital and then had a negative influence on investment in human capital.The critical point of transition was about 10%.After stepping over the critical point,the reduction of investment in human capital would speed up with the development of the aging level.When it reached about 30%,investment in human capital would be reduced by 1% by improving 1% of the aging level.Meanwhile,due to differences of public education expenditure scale,expenditure structure and regional distribution in three countries,China,South Korea and Japan kept in the ascent stage,stable stage and declining stage of‘inverted U＇,respectively.The aging population in Japan and South Korea presented ‘inverted U＇in public education expenditure,showing that public resources had intergeneration competition.In order to relieve crowding-out effects of the aging population on public expenditure,both countries have taken lots of measures to relieve negative effects of the aging population and they have formed the perfect policy system for many years.Both countries have abundant experience in coping with the aging population,but they also should learn from it.Influences of the aging population in both countries on investment in human capital predict the possible development tendency in China.China should learn from experience in Japan and South Korean,control rapid development of the aging population,construct the perfect legal protection system for the elderly,maintain rights and benefits for the elderly,coordinate public resource distribution,and improve educational investment structure.In addition,China also should enlarge investment in human capital,cope with possible changes of investment in human capital caused by the aging population,and realize sustainable economic development.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第11期39-51,共13页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"老龄化条件下家庭人力资本投资的代际合作与竞争关系研究"(批准号:71573158)
教育部人文社科规划课题"中日韩人口老龄化与经济增长方式转型比较研究"(批准号:13YJAZH056)
关键词
人口老龄化
人力资本投资
个体固定效应模型
倒U型
population aging
human capital investment
individual fixed effect model
inverted U
