摘要
中国一直是世界第一大生猪生产和消费国,近年来中国猪肉消费稳步增长,基本保持50%的全球份额,人均猪肉消费量长期位居世界前列。但随着国内经济增速放缓,猪肉消费整体疲弱,并呈现一些新特点。另外,居民收入、人口结构与城镇化、猪肉及替代品价格等是影响猪肉消费的主要因素。随着人口增加,中国肉类消费将保持稳步上升态势,人均猪肉消费量连续两年下降后将小幅回弹,预计"十三五"期间中国猪肉消费量占比仍保持在60%左右,牛羊肉及禽肉消费占比继续增加。从城乡消费来看,农村消费潜力较大。
As the world＇s largest pork producer and consumer,China had experienced a continuous increase in domestic consumption for years,which accounted for about 50 percent of the world＇s pork consumption,meanwhile per capita consumption was also highly ranked.But the situation is reversing,consumption is slackening due to the rate of economic growth slowing down.Key factors such as resident income,population structure and urbanization,pork and alternative prices were discussed in this paper,and the authors got a conclusion that driven by the growing population,China＇s meat consumption would continue to increase,per capita consumption of pork would rebound after two consecutive decreasing years,and the proportion of pork consumption was likely to maintain around 60 percent of domestic meat consumption during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period,while beef,lamb and broiler consumption were expected to gain larger market share.From the urban and rural consumption,the latter is likely to offer a huge potential for growth.
作者
陶炜煜
刘翌阳
张剑波
刘艳芳
Tao Weiyu Liu Yiyang Zhang Jianbo Liu Yanfang(China International Electronic Commerce Center, Beijing 100006)
出处
《农业展望》
2017年第9期108-113,共6页
Agricultural Outlook
关键词
猪肉消费
发展趋势
城镇化
人口结构
替代品
“十三五”
pork consumption
development trend
urbanization
demographic structure
alternation
the 13th Five-Year Plan
