摘要
中东格局正在从"一超独霸"走向多极化,在教派矛盾背景下逐步分化成美俄在背后支持的两大阵营。地区大国沙特阿拉伯积极开展大国外交,为中东新格局谋篇布局。但中东格局重塑过程仍充满不确定性,包括卡塔尔断交风波、沙特阿拉伯权力交接、伊拉克库尔德人公投,以及巴勒斯坦问题和伊朗核问题的下一步走向等都有待进一步观察。从全球油气市场大格局看,石油市场呈现板块化趋势,而天然气市场呈现去板块化趋势。国际油气市场的结构性变化让中国和中东关系更加密切,美俄在中东两大阵营对垒中的立场也会受到两国自身的油气经济利益的影响。限产对石油市场的调控作用有限,而且中东的石油安全风险总体可控。建议中国要基于中东地缘政治格局开展"一带一路"合作:互联互通建设应与产能合作相结合;认清中东地缘政治的现实,避免过度理想化的想法;重视利用已有的区域多边组织开展合作。
The pattern of Middle East is moving from overlord status to multi-polarization, presenting the two camps, which are gradually divided into pro-American and pro-Moscow under the backdrop of sectarian contradictions. Saudi Arabia is actively engaged in the diplomacy of great powers to make a layout for the new pattern in the Middle East, but the process of reshaping the Middle East is still fraught with uncertainty and some issues including the diplomatic crisis of Qatar, the power transition in Saudi Arabia, the referendum of Iraqi Kurds, the question of Palestine and the Iranian nuclear issue remain to be seen. From the global oil and gas market, the oil market shows the trend of regionalization, while the natural gas market shows the trend of deregionalization. The structural changes in the international oil and gas market made the relations between China and the Middle East more close, and will also affect the position of US and Russia in the two main camps in the Middle East. The output limitation targets play a limited role for adjusting and controlling oil market; oil security risks in the Middle East are generally under control. It is suggested that China should carry out the Belt and Road cooperation based on the geopolitical pattern of the Middle East; interconnection ＆ intercommunication should be combined with production capacity cooperation; should recognize the realities of the Middle East geopolitics and avoid overly idealistic ideas; take advantages of existing regional multilateral organizations to develop further cooperation.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2017年第10期1-7,共7页
International Petroleum Economics
关键词
中东
政治格局
油气格局
投资环境
沙特阿拉伯
美国
中国
俄罗斯
“一带一路”倡议
多边合作
the Middle East
political pattern
oil and gas pattern
investment environment
Saudi Arabia
the United States
China
Russia
the Belt and Road Initiative
multilateral cooperation
