摘要
鉴于海事码头系统的复杂性,利用单一的集对分析理论难以对其做出准确的风险评价,因此,将熵权和集对分析理论加以组合,基于熵权和集对分析的基本理论,建立EW-SPA模型的海事码头安全评价研究方法。首先,综合分析影响码头安全的影响因素,建立包括自然环境、港口环境、交通环境3类一级指标及14项二级指标的海事码头安全评价指标体系。其次,应用专家调查法赋权与信息熵的理论确定权重,从而保证了原始信息的完整性,减少信息的流失。再次,运用集对分析原理计算集对联系度,对海事码头的安全状况进行评价和预测,从而克服了传统码头安全评价方法在处理不确定性方面的不足。最后,运用EW-SPA模型和熵权云模型对道仁矶海事码头的安全评价与预测进行比对分析,结果表明,将EW-SPA模型应用于海事码头的安全评价和预测,计算简单,评价结果较可靠。
The paper is aimed to introduce a safety evaluation method for assessing the safety situation of the maritime terminals based on the entropy weight and set pair analysis theory. For the complexity of the marine terminal system,it＇s difficult to make an accurate assessment of the latent risk probabilities by using a single set pair analysis theory. It is just because of the above reasons that we have established in this paper that we have joined the entropy weight and the set pair analysis theory together to work out a research method of the safety assessment of marine terminal based on the EW-SPA model. To formulate and improve the model mentioned above,we have first of all made a comprehensive analysis of the influential factors of the terminal safety and founded the safety assessment index system including the three first grade indexes of the natural environment,the harbor environment and the traffic conditions with 14 kinds of second indexes being listed.Secondly,careful nsideration has been done to determine the status-quo of the Maritime Terminal through the expert investigation and the information entropy theory to reduce the information loss and guarantee the integrity of data and information we have gained. Furthermore,the safety condition of the marine terminal can be evaluated and predicted in accordance with the relation closeness degree achieved via the set analysis principle,so that the deficiency of the traditional safety assessment methods in the aspect of dealing with uncertainty can be made up for to some extent. And,finally,safety assessment and prediction has also been done by using the EW-SPA model and the entropy weight cloud model,respectively,for the successful construction of the Dao Renji marine terminal. After all,the comparison results show that the EW-SPA model can be properly used for the purpose of safety assessment and forecast of the construction quality of the maritime terminal. What is more,the calculation process can be said simplistic with the assessment results being gained reasonable and reliable.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期1673-1676,共4页
Journal of Safety and Environment
关键词
安全工程
熵权
集对分析
海事码头
安全评价
saiety engineering
entropy weight
set pair analysis
maritime terminal
safety evaluation
