摘要
基于2000、2010和2015年的土地利用数据集,利用景观格局指数、动态变化模型、景观转移矩阵及CLUE-S模型预测的研究方法,对太湖流域景观空间格局动态演变进行分析.结果表明:2000—2015年间,流域景观类型始终以耕地、建设用地为主,景观破碎化程度加强,分布呈现均匀趋势.从动态转移变化来看,耕地和建设用地变化显著,分别以2.1%和8.4%的速度减少和增加了6761和6615.33 km^2;由景观转移可见,耕地减少部分主要转变为建设用地,有7866.30 km^2的耕地转变成建设用地,占耕地变化量的91.6%,对建设用地增加的贡献率达到96.5%.各县市的耕地、建设用地变化趋势与整个太湖流域相同,其中,上海市中心城区、浦东新区、临安市、宝山区、闵行区、嘉定区和常州市的耕地和建设用地面积变化尤为突出.结合总量变化与CLUE-S模型模拟2030年景观格局动态演变表明,自然发展情景下耕地和建设用地的变化幅度最大;在生态保护情景下草地面积猛增,动态度达到54.5%;在耕地保护情景下耕地和建设用地的变化幅度骤减.
Based on the land-use satellite image datasets of 2000,2010 and 2015,the landscape index,dynamic change model,landscape transfer matrix and CLUE-S model were integrated to analyze the dynamic evolution of the landscape spatial pattern of Taihu Lake basin. The results showed that the landscape type of the basin was dominated by cultivated land and construction land,and the degree of landscape fragmentation was strengthened from 2000 to 2015,and the distribution showed a uniform trend. From the point of transfer dynamic change,the cultivated land and construction land changed significantly,which was reduced by 6761 km2（ 2.1%） and increased by6615.33 km-2（ 8.4%）,respectively. From the landscape transfer,it could be seen that the main change direction of the cultivated land reduction was the construction land,and the cultivated land with 7866.30 km-2 was converted into construction land,accounting for 91.6% of the cultivated land change,and the contribution to the construction land was 96.5%. The trend of dynamic changes of cultivated and construction land in the counties and cities was the same as that of the whole Taihu Lake basin. For Shanghai Central Urban,as well as Pudong District,Lin＇an City,Baoshan District,Minhang District,Jiading District and Changzhou City,the area of the cultivated land and construction land changed more prominently. However,compared with the CLUE-S model for the landscape pattern change in 2030,the change of cultivated and construction lands would be the largest in the natural development scenario. Under the ecological protection scenario,the area of grassland would increase and the dynamic degree would reach 54.5%. Under the situation of cultivated land protection,the conversion of cultivated land to construction land would be decreased.
作者
王芳
谢小平
陈芝聪
WANG Fang;XIE Xiao-ping;CHEN Zhi-cong(School of Geography ＆ Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, Shandong, China)
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第11期3720-3730,共11页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41072164)资助~~
