摘要
非定线旅游客运运力的科学规划,能够通过引导旅游客运车辆规模的合理发展为城市旅游业提供运输保障。针对目前非定线旅游客运运力规划主要依靠经验、缺乏系统定量分析方法的不足,在分析影响运力供给与需求因素的基础上,基于工作负荷提出了非定线旅游客运运力的规划流程。以旅游客运系统运行效率最优为目标,同时考虑运力弹性空间,建立运力规划模型,并以昆明市为实例进行了验证。结果表明:2016年昆明市非定线旅游客运运力的合适规模为2 132~2 244 veh旅游客车,预计2018年所需运力将达2 380~2 506 veh旅游客车;在最优工作负荷条件下的运力规划方案,2016年前3季度客车工作负荷为75.23%,旅游客运系统整体运行效率较高,优于现有运力方案;少数月份客车工作负荷超过80%,但弹性参数的设置,较好地解决了旅游旺季及个别突发状况而导致的运力紧张问题,使运力的供给与需求能够长期保持较优匹配。所提出的运力规划方法能够改善传统决策缺乏系统定量分析的缺陷,为城市非定线旅游客运运力规划决策提供理论依据。
The scientific planning of tourist transport capacity of non - fixed line can provide the guarantee for the urban tourism industry through the rational development of the scale of tourist bus. In view of the shortage of current non-fixed line tourist transport capacity planning mainly depends on experience and lacks of systematic quantitative analysis method, on the basis of analyzing the factors which influence the supply and demand of the transport capacity, the planning process of non-fixed line tourist transport capacity is put forward based on working load. To achieve the objective of the optimization of the operating efficiency of the tourist transport system, considering the elastic space of transport capacity, the capacity planning model is established, and the model is verified by the example of Kunming City. The result shows that （ 1 ） the rational scale of non-fixed line tourist transport capacity in Kunming City is 2 132 -2 244 tourist vehicles in 2016, it is expected to require 2 380 -2 506 tourist vehicles in 2018; （2） the working load of buses is 75.23% in the first 3 quarters of 2016 based on the tourist transport capacity planning scheme under the optimal working load, and the tourist passenger transport system has higher operation efficiency, better than the existing capacity scheme; （3） in a few months, the working load of buses is more than 80% , but by setting elastic parameters, the problem of capacity shortage caused by tourism busy season and individual unexpected situation has been solved, which makes the supply and demand of transport capacity can keep a good match for a long time. The proposed model can put right the weakness of the traditional decision-making lacks of quantitative analysis, and provide a theoretical basis for tourist transport capacity planning decision-making.
出处
《公路交通科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第11期110-115,142,共7页
Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71563023
41501174)
云南省应用基础研究重点项目(2015FA019)
云南省省院省校教育合作人文社科研究项目(SYSX201611)
关键词
交通工程
旅游客运运力规划
数理统计
非定线旅游客运
工作负荷
traffic engineering
tourist transport capacity planning
mathematical statistics
non-fixed line tourist transport
working load
