摘要
论文基于长江经济带战略视角研究江苏省工业碳排放问题,以推动"强富美高"新江苏建设。运用IPCC清单法测算了2000—2015年江苏省工业碳排放量,并构建了基于能源结构、能源强度、经济结构和经济规模的碳排放恒等式,结合LMDI分解法,对2000—2015年江苏省碳排放的工业层面进行分解。结果表明:江苏省工业碳排放总量整体呈波动上升趋势,但增速减缓,单位能耗下降速度快于人均碳排放上升速度;经济规模是工业碳排放增长的主要动力;能源强度是有效抑制碳排放的关键因素;经济结构效应对于工业碳排放增长的贡献率由正到负;能源结构因素对于工业碳排放贡献率微弱,碳减排潜力有待发挥。结合以上结论提出以"区域协同、东西互补、绿色发展"为核心的工业生态发展新思路。
This paper is based on the Yangtze River Economic Zone strategic perspective of studying the problem of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province, in order to promote the construction of ＂strong economy, wealthy people, beautiful environment and high social civilization＂ in new Jiangsu. It applies the IPCC list method to measure the industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2015, and constructs the carbon emission identities based on energy structure, energy intensity, economic structure and economic scale, decomposing the carbon emissions from industrial level with LMDI decomposition method in Jiangsu Province during the period of 2000 and 2015. The results show that the total amount of industrial carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province is on an fluctuating upward trend, but the growth rate slows down. The decreasing rate of unit energy consumption is faster than the rising rate of per capita carbon emissions. Economic scale is the main driver of industrial carbon emissions growth. Energy intensity is a key factor in the effective suppression of carbon emissions. The contribution rate of economic structural effects to industrial carbon emissions growth is shifting from positive to negative. Energy structure effect for the contribution of industrial carbon emissions is weak. The potential of carbon emissions remains to be developed. Combined with the empirical results above, this paper puts forward the new ideas of economic development of＂Regional synergy, Complementary development and Ecological development＂.
作者
田泽
程飞
TIAN Ze;CHENG Fei(Low Carbon Economy and Technology Institute, Hohai University, Changzhou Jiangsu 213022, China;College of Business Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou Jiangsu 213022, China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2017年第12期24-27,共4页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于三对均衡关系的碳排放初始权配置方法研究"(41471457)
江苏省"世界水谷"与水生态文明协同创新中心项目
关键词
长江经济带
工业行业
碳排放
LMDI模型
Yangtze River Economic Zone
industry
carbon emissions
LMDI model
