摘要
为了探究旱区气候变化及主要气象因子对不同种植模式下玉米产量的影响,该研究对AquaCrop模型玉米参数进行校准和验证,并在35a历史气象数据的基础上设计不同气温和降雨梯度,利用模拟的方法分析不同情景下玉米产量变化趋势。结果表明:AquaCrop模型在试验点模拟精度较高,3种种植模式下实测与模拟产量的均方根误差为245.34~745.10 kg/hm^2,标准均方根误差为6.94%~9.49%。在设定范围内(降雨降低15%~升高15%,气温降低1.5℃~升高1.5℃),随气温和降雨升高,3种种植模式下产量波动均呈减小趋势,其中全膜双垄沟播下产量波动最小,平均产量曲线斜率为0.083 4,适应气候变化能力较强。在A3B3(温度升高1.5℃、降雨提高15%)情景下产量均达到最大,相比历史气候,露地、单垄、全膜双垄沟播分别平均增产13.45%、11.57%、17.67%。气温对3种模式下产量均有极显著影响,降雨对露地种植产量影响为极显著,而对单垄和全膜双垄沟播产量影响显著。该研究对气候变化下作物产量预测、风险评估及制定相关管理措施提供参考。
The climate change has important effects on agriculture in which climatic variables are the main contributor to yield and have received wide concerns globally. In order to explore the influence of climate change in arid area and main meteorological factors on maize yield under different planting patterns, the study first calibrated and validated the parameters of Aqua Crop model for open field planting, single-row ridge planting and all-film double-furrow sowing in arid regions, with the data of field experiment from 2014 to 2016. Calibration parameter mainly included the maximum canopy coverage, reference harvest index, normalized water productivity, readily evaporable water, and so on. The research also designed different temperature and precipitation gradients based on 35-year historical meteorological data from 1981 to 2015, and simulation method was used to analyze the maize yield trends under different situations. Air temperature levels were: 1) to decrease by 1.5 ℃ in daily mean temperature(A1); 2) historical daily temperature(A2); 3) to increase by 1.5 ℃ in daily mean temperature(A3). Precipitation levels were: 1) to decrease by 15% in daily precipitation(B1); historical daily precipitation(B2); 3) to increase by 15% in daily precipitation(B3). The results showed the Aqua Crop model could predict the maize yield and biomass with the 3 planting patterns accurately, the root mean square error of measured and simulated yield with 3 planting patterns was between 245.34 and 745.10 kg/hm2, the normalized root mean square error was between 6.94% and 9.49%, and the tendency of simulated and tested soil water content was nearly uniform, the NRMSE of which was between 8.65% and 10.74%. Overall, the Aqua Crop model was powerful to simulate crop yield, biomass and soil water content of maize in study site. Through comparing the different calibration parameters of 3 planting patterns, we could find all-film double-furrow sowing had the function of keeping moisture and improving crop yield potentially. Within the setting range, with the temperature and precipitation increasing, the range of yield fluctuation under 3 plating patterns was reduced, and the yield fluctuation of all-film double-furrow sowing was the smallest, with the slope of the average yield curve of 0.083 4, so it had a strong ability to adapt to climate change. Yield fluctuation of single-row ridge planting was the largest when temperature decreased or increased by 1.5 ℃, and the slopes of yield curves were 0.211 0 and 0.051 6, respectively. Different gradients of temperature and precipitation all had obvious influence on maize yield under open field planting, which showed that the yield under this panting pattern was more easily affected and hardly controlled for climate change. The yield potential reached the maximum in A3 B3 situation(temperature and precipitation increased by 1.5 ℃ and 15%, respectively). Compared with the original climate, the yield of open field planting, single-row ridge planting and all-film double-furrow sowing averagely increased by 13.45%, 11.57% and 17.67%, respectively. Temperature had an extremely significant effect on the yield under 3 planting patterns, and the precipitation was very significant for yield under open field planting and significant for yield under single-row ridge planting and all-film double-furrow sowing. This study can provide reference for yield prediction, risk assessment and the determination of relevant management measures. In the future, more efforts should be paid to explore complex influence of climate and crop management acting together on crop production.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第20期127-135,共9页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
公益性行业专项(201503124)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51665001和51665002)
