摘要
天山地区的降水变化及其对全球气候变化的响应是近年来研究的热点。利用中国天山地区40个气象站1951-2014年的月降水数据,运用线性倾向估计、相关分析等气候诊断方法,分析了该区域的降水变化,探讨了主要气候指数与降水同步变化的相关关系。结果表明:年降水呈现出"西多东少,北多南少,高山多外围少"的特征,年降水变化率为6.0 mm·(10a)-1。SASMI与年降水表现为显著正相关,PDO、PNA和AO与年降水表现为弱正相关,且有局限性。在枯水期,SASMI与天山北坡及部分中高山地带的降水表现为弱正相关,而在西天山南坡表现为弱负相关,ENSO与中、西天山南北坡的中低山带的降水变化相关性较高。在丰水期,SASMI与天山南坡和高山区降水变化相关性较高,PDO与中、西天山南北坡的低山带部分站点的降水变化相关性较高。
The precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains and its response to global climate change is a hotspot in recent years. In this paper, precipitation dataset of 40 meteorological stations from 1951 through 2014 in the Tianshan Mountains and general climate indexes were used to analyze the precipitation changing trend in the Tianshan Mountains over the past 60 years, and to investigate the impact of general climate indexes on precipita- tion, through linear tendency estimation and correlation analysis. Result of the study shows that, firstly, precipi- tation is more in the north/west and alpine regions but less in the south/east and plain regions. There was an increasing tendency of precipitation, about 6 mm ~ （10a） -1. Secondly, SASMI is the main factor that controls annual precipitation, and there is a significant positive correlation between them. However, PDO, PNA and AO have a positive correlation with annual precipitation insignificantly in range and intensity. Thirdly, during dry seasons, precipitation is affected by various general climate indexes which have distinct spatial differential. SAS- MI has a little positive correlation with precipitation in the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains and parts of the alpine regions, but it has a minor negative correlation with precipitation in the southern slopes of the western Tianshan Mountains. What＇s more, there is more similarity between ENSO and the precipitation variation in the southern and northern slopes and low-medium mountainous belts of the middle-western Tianshan Mountains. Finally, during wet seasons, there is more similarity between SASMI and precipitation variation in the southern and northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, as well as in the alpine regions; also there is more similarity between PDO and precipitation variation in low mountainous belts in the southern and northern slopes of the middle-western Tianshan Mountains.
作者
刘友存
焦克勤
赵奎
刘燕
韩添丁
钟宇
沈永平
郝永红
叶柏生
LIU Youcun;JIAO Keqin;ZHAO Kui;LIU Yan;HAN Tianding;ZHONG Yu;SHEN Yongping;HAO Yonghong;YE Baisheng(College of Resources and Environmental Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi China;Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;Tianfin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianfin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China)
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期748-759,共12页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41471001
41271083
41271035)
江西理工大学人才引进基金项目(jxxjbs17017)
中国科学院重点部署项目(KJZD-EW-G03-04)资助
关键词
气候变化
气候指数
降水
天山
climate change
climate index
precipitation
Tianshan Mountains
