摘要
鉴于在开挖过程中隧道的开挖面稳定性至关重要,本文运用贝叶斯网络与云模型在复杂系统分析中的优势,基于工程实践经验与研究,采用贝叶斯网络与云模型构建了基于云贝叶斯网络的泥水盾构隧道开挖面稳定性研究模型,对于数据在贝叶斯网络各节点的状态归属上使用了云模型,使得属于各状态界限处的数据能够得到客观归类,同时对最终风险节点使用了综合云生成方法,能输出具体风险值。以某隧道工程的泥水盾构隧道开挖面为实例研究,通过正向推理预测估计三个具有代表性的截面风险值,结合反向推理得到了对各截面稳定性最重要的因素,验证了提出方法对复杂工程失效问题的分析能够提供决策支持。
In view of the importance of excavation surface in tunnel construction, this paper constructs the research model base on Bayesian network and cloud model taking the advantages in complex system analysis. At the same time, this research based on engineering practice experience. The data model uses the cloud model on the state attribution of each node of the Bayesian network, so that the data belonging to each state limit can be objectively classified. The use of a comprehensive cloud generation method for the final risk node can output a specific risk value. Taking the excavation surface of the shield tunnel in the cross-river tunnel project of a metro as an example, three representative risk values are estimated by forward reasoning prediction. Combined with the reverse reasoning, the most important factors of the stability of each section are obtained. It is proved that the proposed method can provide decision support for the analysis of the failure problem of complex engineering.
作者
陈发达
王彦玉
吴贤国
肖德纲
张立茂
GHEN Fa-da;WANG Yan-yu;WU Xian-guo;Xiao De-gang;Zhang Li-mao(Guiyang Urban Rail Transit Co Ltd, Guiyang 550091, China;School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China;Wuhan Metro Group Co Ltd, Wuhan 430030, China)
出处
《土木工程与管理学报》
北大核心
2017年第6期73-79,95,共8页
Journal of Civil Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金(51378235
71571078
51778262
51308240)
国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0800208)
湖北省自然科学基金重点项目(zrz2014000104)
教育部博士后基金(2015M570645)
武汉市建委科技项目(201414
201619
201334)
关键词
云贝叶斯网络
泥水盾构
风险事故
诊断分析
对比分析
cloud bayesian network
slurry shield
risk accident
diagnostic analysis
comparativeanalysis
