摘要
基于1964—2016年乌鲁木齐市米东区日照时数资料,使用线性回归方法,分析乌鲁木齐市北部农区日照时数的时空变化特征,并用偏最小二乘法(PLS)分析日照时数与各气象要素之间的相关性。结果表明:(1)年日照时数平均每10 a递减95.5 h,1998年后日照时数急剧减少,连续19 a均为负距平。(2)3—10月日照时数变化不明显,11月—次年2月日照时数显著减少。(3)4—10月大田作物生长季光照条件稳定,冬季设施农业生产季11月—次年3月的日照时数显著减少、寡照日数增多,光照不足严重影响设施农业生产。(4)近53 a雾日增加、低能见度发生频率增大、低云量增多是造成米东区日照时数剧烈减少的主要气象原因,米东区和主城区相比,局地气候特征更为突出。
This paper analyzed the mutation characteristics of sunshine duration in northern ruralsection of Urumqi,based on the materials of sunshine duration of Midong District in Urumqi from1964 to 2016,with the method of linear regression. The correlation between the number of hours ofsunshine and the elements of the meteorological elements was analyzed by the means of PartialLeast Squares regression （PLS） . The results show that （1）The average annual sunshine ratedecreased by 95.5 h/10a,and the number of hours of sunshine continuous 19a is a negativedistance and fell sharply Since 1998.（2）The Changes of sunshine hours in the period From Marchto October were not significant,and the changes was significantly reduced from the November toFebruary of the next year. （3） The change in the number of sunshine hours was not evident fromApril to October in every year. This is the season when crop growing in the field. From November toMarch of the next year,which is the time of the facility agriculture production,the sunshine hourshave significantly decreased which have influences on the agriculture production.（4）The mainreasons which make sunshine duration decrease are increasing fog days,high frequency of lowvisibility,increasing low cloud cover,high amount of snowfall in winter. Compared with the mainpart of the city,the northern agricultural area local climate is more prominent.
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2017年第6期40-45,共6页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
国家重大科学研究计划项目(2012CB956204-2):干旱区绿洲农田生态系统脆弱性评估
关键词
乌鲁木齐
北部农区
日照时数
变化趋势
偏最小二乘回归
Urumqi
The northern rural section
sunshine duration
mutation trend
Partial LeastSquares regression.
