摘要
选取杨梅采摘期易对产量造成影响的降水因子作为保险设计的气象致害指标,定义连续降水影响日数作为杨梅降水指数;经杨梅产量分离和去趋势化处理,分析1995—2015年产量损失率和降水指数的关系,建立杨梅产量灾损模型;利用长序列历史降水资料,选用韦伯分布模型计算不同等级降水指数的风险概率,设计不同赔付触发条件下的保险纯费率和杨梅降水气象指数保险产品,为杨梅农业保险可持续发展提供技术支撑。该指数保险产品具有可操作性,可为宁波地区杨梅降水保险业务提供参考,以便在降水灾害发生后客观、便捷地开展保险理赔工作。
The number of continuous precipitation days in harvest period was employed to evaluate the meteorological damage,as precipitation has a significant effect on the yield of Myrica rubra. The yield damage model of Myrica rubra was established based on the relationship between yield loss rate and number of continuous precipitation days from 1995 to 2015. The yield loss rate was calculated by yield separation and de-trend processing. The risk probability of different grade precipitation index was calculated with Weber distribution model based on long sequence historical precipitation data. Reference to the disaster model and risk probability,the insurance products and pure insurance rate under different pay trigger conditions were designed to provide technical support for agricultural insurance's sustainable development. We propose that the index insurance products are operational,and can provide scientific reference for precipitation insurance business of Myrica rubra in Ningbo city.
出处
《浙江农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期2032-2037,共6页
Acta Agriculturae Zhejiangensis
基金
浙江省保险学会一般项目(2016086)
关键词
杨梅
降水
气象指数
纯费率
农业保险
Myrica rubra
precipitation
meteorological index
pure premium rate
agricultural insurance
