摘要
气候变化对陆地水文系统有着重大影响。利用1955—2015年我国西北干旱区党河水库入库流量资料,结合下游敦煌站1951—2015年平均气温与降水量逐月数据,采用线性趋势分析、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall法与R/S法等分析方法,分析了党河水库入库径流量及气温和降水量的变化特征,以及其未来可能变化趋势,并探讨了入库径流量对气温和降水量变化的响应关系。结果表明:(1)1955—2015年党河水库入库径流量年际变化大,丰枯水年出现频率符合正态分布特征,入库径流量呈显著增加趋势,其线性增加率为0.16亿m^3·(10 a)-1,且这种增加趋势在未来变化中持续性极强;(2)1951—2015年,敦煌地区年均气温与年降水量均呈上升趋势,显著升温和降水微弱增加的趋势在未来变化中持续性极强,且二者均发生突变,突变年前者是1997年前后,后者为1970年和1986年前后;(3)年入库径流量对年均温度和年降水量变化的响应分析发现,年均温度变化是导致党河水库入库径流量变化的主要因素,降水是次要因素。
Climate change plays an important role on land hydrologic system in the arid region of northwest China. Based on the flow into Danghe reservoir during 1955-2015 and the monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation at Dunhuang weather station during 1951-2015,the trend and possible change in the future of the runoff into Danghe reservoir and average temperature,precipitation were analyzed by using the methods of trend analysis,moving average,Mann-Kendall test and R/S analysis,etc. The relation between the runoff and temperature,precipitation was built by using multiple linear regression model. The results are as follows:( 1) The change of annual runoff into Danghe river was large during 1955-2015,and the frequency of more and less rainfall years presented the normal distribution characteristics. The average increasing rate of the runoff was 16-million m3 per 10 year,and the increasing trend would still continue for some time in the future.( 2) The annual average temperature and annual precipitation increased during 1951-2015 on the whole,but the increasing trend of temperature was highly significant,while that of precipitation wasn't significant,and the increasing trends would last for some time in the future. The annual average temperature and annual precipitation occurred the mutation,and the former was in 1997,while the later were in 1970 and 1986.( 3) The linear regression equation between the runoff and temperature,precipitation during 1981-2015 showed that the annual average temperature change was main factor causing the change of runoff into Danghe reservoir,while the precipitation was secondary factor.
出处
《干旱气象》
2017年第6期984-990,共7页
Journal of Arid Meteorology
基金
中央级公益性科研院所基金(CAFYBB2016MA012)
国家自然科学基金项目(41671049)共同资助
关键词
党河水库
径流量
气候变化
Danghe river reservoir
runoff
climate change
