摘要
随着中国经济总量超过日本位居世界第二并挑战美国世界第一的地位,有关中美之间"修昔底德陷阱"问题引起了政界、学界的关注。我们认为,在中美之间出现所谓"修昔底德陷阱"问题的同时,中日之间也存在着"修昔底德陷阱"。此外,美国要抑制中国,仅凭自身的力量已力不从心,需要联合第三方的力量,而日本也不愿中国做大做强,因而天然地与美国形成了抗衡中国的联盟。这样,"修昔底德陷阱"理论就不能完全适用于解释当今世界中美日博弈的问题。有鉴于此,我们创立三维博弈的理论来破解当前的博弈问题。该理论揭示出不当的博弈也会导致"三方博弈的陷阱"。该理论同时包含着规避"博弈陷阱"的法则,该法则对博弈各方都有用,都有参考价值。根据该理论,我们站在中国的角度推导出中国逆境制胜的"三位一体"的战略组合。
The ＂Thucydides Trap＂ between China and the US has caused attention of political and academic circles in the past years with the economic sum of China surpass Japan and become the world＇ s second so as to challenge the world＇ s first of the US, and the academic circles have published a lot of related papers. In fact, while there is a prob- lem of ＂Thucydides Trap＂ between China and US, there is also a ＂Thucydides Trap＂ between China and Japan. On the other hand, it is difficult for the US to restrain China by its own force, it need to unite third party. Japan is also re- luctant to see China become bigger and stronger and it has historical contradictions with China, and Japan has greatest economic and technological strength in the eastern Asia, thus, Japan and the US are naturally become the alliance in contending against China. Thus, the theory of＂Thucydides Trap＂ cannot apply to the game among China, the US and Japan in today＇ s world because ＂Thucydides Trap＂ deals with the two-parties game but the game of China, the US and Japan at present involves three parties. For this reason, we set up new theory i.e. ＂three-parties game＂ theory to solve the game problem of China, the US and Japan. The theory reveals that inappropriate gaming will result in ＂Three-Parties Game Trap＂ and the theory also includes the law to avoid the ＂Three-Parties Game Trap＂, and the law is useful for all parties in the game. According to the theory, we deduce a ＂Trinitarian strategy＂ for China to win in adversity.
作者
方行明
张焱
丁俊菘
Fang Xingrning1;Zhang Yan2;Ding Junsong3
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期97-107,共11页
Finance & Economics
