摘要
选取2014年江西大监站24 h出现10站次以上大雨以上量级的降水过程,采用统计对比分析方法,对Ecmwf、Grapes、T639和GTEJ 4种数值模式逐3 h的降水预报效果进行检验。结果表明:不同时段各模式的预报准确率不同,前00:00-09:00,Ecmwf的预报准确率达34%;18:00,Grapes准确率达30%;12:00-21:00,GTEJ的预报准确率达31%;24:00,T639的预报准确率达26%。模式降水预报的可参考性在各季节也不一样,Ecmwf、Grapes和GTEJ秋冬季的可参考性要明显强于春秋季节,而T639对于春季降水预报的可参考性是最强的;夏季的降水预报,GTEJ的可参考性是最强的;秋季和冬季的降水预报,Ecmwf和GTEJ的可参考性都较强;对于不同类型降水下4种模式的降水预报效果,高空槽型和切变型降水,GTEJ的参考性最强的;冷空气型和台风型的降水,Ecmwf的可参考性最强;副高边缘型的降水,Ecmwf和GTEJ的都具有很好的参考价值。
Select the precipitation peared in 24 hours in 2014 ,using process of more than 10 stations with more than 10 stations ap- Statistical contrast analysis method, four numerical mode of the Ecmwf, Grapes,T639 and GTEJ is used to test the precipitation forecast by three hours. The results showed ： The prediction accuracy of each mode was different in different time periods, in the first 0 - 9 hours ,the prediction accuracy of Ecmwf was 34% ;in 18 hours, the accuracy of the Grapes reached 30% ;in 12 -21 hours, the accuracy of GTEJ reached 31%, in 24 hours, the forecast accuracy of T639 was 26%. The reference of precipitation forecast in each season was different also, the refer- ence of Ecmwf, Grapes and GTEJ in fall and winter was much higher than in spring and autumn,the reference of T639 was the strongest in spring;precipitation forecast in Summer, GTEJ＇s reference was strongest;Precipitation forecast in autumn and winter, Ecmwf and GTEJ had stronger reference. For the precipitation prediction effect of four modes in different types of precipitation, in the high-slot type and the cut type precipitation, the reference of GTEJ was the strongest;in the Cold-air type and typhoon type precipitation, the reference of Ecmwf was strongest,in the marginal type of precipitati- on, Ecmwf and GTEJ had good reference value.
出处
《江西科学》
2017年第6期956-960,共5页
Jiangxi Science
基金
宜春市气象局科研项目"四种数值模式的降水预报检验分析"
宜春市气象局创新团队科研项目"市县级短临预警预报业务平台"
关键词
降水预报
数值模式
检验分析
precipitation forecast
numerical model
test analysis
