摘要
为保障集装箱化危险品船载运输安全,首先通过分析集装箱化危险品船载运输典型事故案例,初步辨识事故风险因子;其次构建集装箱化危险品船载运输事故树,计算临界概率重要度得到风险致因关键因子;然后建立致因关键因子的层次重要度分析模型,分析因子的层次重要度,得出风险致因关键因子的相对重要程度。结果表明:集装箱化危险品船载运输风险致因关键因子包括包装不当、装箱不当、环境温度过高和运输途中颠簸等6项,其中包装质量缺陷、环境温度过高2项最底层敏感因子,对货物事故发生概率的影响较大。
In order to ensure the safe transportation of dangerous goods on board, a risk factor identification model was built for containerized dangerous goods on board based on the degree of combination importance by using both the FTA and the level importance analysis methods. For building the model,the accident risk factors were identified according to the analysis of the typical accident cases of dangerous goods on board,a fault tree of dangerous cargo transportation was established,and the key factors of risk were calculated by the critical probability importance. The hierarchical importance degrees of the factors were analyzed by using the hierarchical importance analysis model of the key factors,and then the key factors leading to risk were got. The results show that there are 6 key factors such as improper packing,excessively high ambient temperature and bumps during transportation,and that both improper packing and excessively high ambient temperature as the lowest sensitivity factors have a greater impact on the probability of accidents during cargo transportation.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第10期168-174,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学青年基金(51709168)
上海海事大学研究生创新基金资助(2017YCX032)
关键词
危险货物
集装箱运输
事故树分析(FTA)
风险辨识
组合重要度
dangerous goods
container transportation
fault tree analysis（FTA）
risk identification
degree of combination importance
