摘要
通过计算1998-2015年天津市32个工业行业各类能源消耗碳排放量,将其划分为高、中高、中、中低、低排放行业五个类别。应用LMDI方法,将天津市工业行业碳排放分解为人口规模、工业发展、行业结构、能源消耗强度、能源消耗结构以及碳排放系数六个因素,分析每一类行业的碳排放影响因素,并针对高碳排放行业建立多因素回归模型,深入研究各项因素对高碳排放行业碳排放的影响。结果表明工业发展和行业结构是高排放因素,能源强度是高减排因素。工业发展和能源强度的变化速度决定碳排放影响贡献值大小,通过降低能源强度促进碳减排是所有行业的一致规律。
The purpose of the study is to find the main influence factors of carbon emission increase and carbon emission reduction of high carbon emission industries in Tianjin City, China. Taking the 32 industrial sectors in Tianjin as research objects, based on the energy consumption data and the economic development data of the industries from 1998 to 2015, this paper calculated the carbon emissions of these industries over the years by using the method provided by IPCC emissions of greenhouse gases listing guidelines, and divided the 32 sectors into high emission industry, the middle to high emission industry, the middle emission industry, the middle and low emission industry, and low emission industry. Then LMDI was used to analyze the influence factors of car- bon emission in each kind of industry, where the factors included population size, industry development, indus- try structure, energy consumption intensity, energy consumption structure and carbon emission coefficient. Results show as follows： （1） the industrial carbon emission in Tianjin kept increasing from 1998 to 2005; （2） the industrial development factor was the dominant factor for carbon emission increase, of which the accumulated contribution value was 2 612.69× 10^4 t, accounting for 60.28% of total carbon emissions increase;while the ener- gy intensity factor was the main factor for carbon emission decrease, which contributed to 97.66% of the total carbon emission decrease; （3） the increasing speed of industrial carbon emission was related to the speed of in- dustrial development, therefore, the industrial carbon emission can be actually decreased by adjusting the indus- trial structure and reducing energy intensity. This paper analyzed the influence factors of carbon emissions for high carbon emission industries in Tianjin, determined the main influence factors, and put forward the development ideas and countermeasures pointedly, which were of great importance to optimize industrial structure and construct the low carbon city in Tianjin.
出处
《干旱区地理》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期1089-1096,共8页
Arid Land Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金(41201581)
天津市艺术科学规划项目(D16007)
关键词
工业行业
碳排放
影响因素
LMDI
多因素回归
industrial sector
carbon emission
influence factors
LMDI
multiple regression analysis
