摘要
现代经济增长过程表明,产业结构变迁与经济效率演进关系密不可分,具体反映在区域发展的阶段性与异质性上。运用DEA-BCC模型、Malmquist生产率指数分析中国三次产业静态综合效率与动态全要素生产率(TFP)的部门与区域变动情况,并基于DEA-Tobit两阶段分析框架构建面板计量模型,探究中国不同地区三次产业经济效率变动影响因素。研究表明:中国三次产业具备一定的静态规模效率,但仍有待优化;1978-2014年间,中国三次产业TFP均有提升,但一、二、三产业TFP增长对其部门经济贡献率依次递减,经济增长粗放型特征仍很明显;TFP增长主要源于技术进步,技术效率改进开始由以纯技术效率为主转向以规模效率为主;将三次产业TFP变动划分为四个阶段,制度、结构、要素、政策等红利对经济增长均有贡献,但在结构调整阶段,制度与结构红利让位于技术进步;三次产业TFP变动表现出显著的区域差异特征,总体上东部地区具有相对优势,中部地区表现为经济效率"凹地",东北地区二、三产业TFP变动反映出严峻的结构转型升级问题。由于不同产业内在发展规律差异,其经济效率影响因素表现出区内相对一致性及部门差异性特征,其中一、三产业结构变动、非农化水平、对外开放程度、人力资源禀赋等对第一产业经济效率产生显著正向作用,对外开放程度显著促进第二产业经济效率提升,而对外开放程度、人力资源禀赋对第三产业经济效率产生显著的负面影响。最后讨论了结论的主要政策启示。
The process of modern economic growth shows a close relationship between the industrial structure changes and the evolution of economic efficiency,which is specifically reflected in the stages and heterogeneity of regional development.This paper employs the DEABCC model and the Malmquist productivity index to analyze the static efficiency and the TFP changes of three industries at sectional and regional levels.Then,based on the DEA-Tobit twostage analyzing framework,this paper establishes a panel data model to analyze the factors affecting the economic efficiency of three industries.The results show that,three industries are equipped with certain static scale efficiencies,but they still need to be optimized.The TFP of three industries have all improved from 1978 to 2014,but their contributions to the economic growth of three industries show a decreasing sequence,featured by apparent extension.The technical progress has significantly propelled the TFP growth,and the technical efficiency improvements have gradually shifted from pure technical efficiency to scale efficiency.The TFP changes can be divided into four stages.The dividends of institution,structure,factors and policies have all contributed to the TFP growth,while during the industrial structure adjustment stage,the institutional and structural dividends give way to the technical progress.Three industrial TFP changes present obvious regional differences.In general,Eastern China has comparative advantages,while Central China becomes the ＂concave area＂,and the TFP changes of the secondary and tertiary industries in Northeast China reflect serious issues of the structural transformation and upgrading.Due to the differences of the internal development laws of different industries,the factors influencing the economic efficiency show the relatively regional consistency and the sectional differences.The primary and tertiary industries changing effect,the non-agricultural level,the opening degree and the human resource endowment have significant positive effects on the economic efficiency of the primary,and the opening degree largely promotes the economic efficiency of the secondary industry,while the opening degree,the human resources endowment have significant negative impacts on the economic efficiency of the tertiary industry.Finally,this paper concludes with suggestions to the future policymaking.
出处
《地理学报》
EI
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期2179-2198,共20页
Acta Geographica Sinica
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(16CJL053)~~
