摘要
采用非对称Archimedean Copula函数与Kendall分布函数分析极端波况下的波高、周期和风速三变量联合概率分布与风险率及其设计分位数,为海岸海洋工程设计和风险评估提供参考依据。以粤东汕尾海域的实测风浪数据为例,使用非对称Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数计算三变量风浪联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的风浪设计值。主要结论如下:对比不同设计风浪重现期显示,"或"重现期的风险率偏高,"且"重现期的风险率偏低,二次重现期更准确地反映了特定设计频率情况下三变量风浪的风险率;按目前有关规范设计要求的单变量风浪要素设计值已经达到安全标准,按三变量"或"重现期和三变量同频率设计值推算的风浪设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的三变量风浪要素的二次重现期设计值可为相关工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。
The joint probability distribution for triple variables（i.e.,wave height,wave period and wind speed under extreme wave condition） was analyzed by using 3-dimensional asymmetric Archimedean copula functions.And the trivariate stormy wave risk probabilities were further explored based on the Kendall distribution function in order to provide the basis for the coastal marine engineering design and risk assessment.A case is studied by using annual maximum wave heights and the relevant wave periods and wind speeds measured in Shanwei sea waters of eastern Guangdong,the primary return periods and secondary return periods of trivariate stormy wave joint distribution and the most likely design values were computed by using the asymmetric Gumbel-Hougaard copula.The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows：Comparing the risk probabilities of trivariate stormy waves among the different design return periods,the ＇OR＇ joint return period showed higher risk probabilities,and the risk probabilities of ＇AND＇ joint return period were lower,while the secondary return periods were more accurately depicted the risk probabilities under these specific design frequencies.According to the relevant specifications of the current design requirements,the univariate wave design values have reached safety standards.The estimated storm wave design values with the trivariate ＇OR＇ return period and triple variables with the same frequencies were obviously higher than expected.The most-likely design realization of the secondary return period can serve as the new selection for coastal marine engineering and risk management.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期631-637,共7页
Marine Science Bulletin
基金
国家自然科学基金(41371498)
