摘要
基于全国第四、第五和第六次人口普查数据,利用探索性空间数据分析反映1990~2010年黑龙江省人口老龄化的时空变化特征及发展趋势,采用地理加权回归模型探究人口老龄化演变的主要影响因素.结果表明:黑龙江省各县市老年人口比重呈上升趋势,老龄化水平差异逐渐扩大,空间分布越来越不平衡;黑龙江省各市县人口老龄化的空间分布存在较强的正相关,热点区由南向东迁移收缩,冷点区由北向西南迁移扩张;各个因素对不同地区人口老龄化的影响程度和方向存在差异,地区间的差异不断扩大.
Based on the fourth, fifth and sixth population census, the spatial correlation of exploratory spatial data analysis are used to reflect the spatial-temporal evolution and development trend in population aging,and geographical weighted regression model to explore the main driving factors in Heilongjiang province during 1990 to 2010. The conclusions are as follows： The aging rate of Heilongjiang province has a rising trend and the difference of the aging level is gradually expanding and spatial distribution is becoming more and more unbalance. Population aging distribution of Heilongjiang province shows a strong spatial correlation and the spatial structure of hot spots and cold spots cluster have clear differences. The hot spots moves from south to east area with shrink,while the cold spots shifts from north to southwest area with expansion. The various factors have contrast influence degree and directions in different areas and there is growing difference among regions.
出处
《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》
CAS
2017年第4期94-100,共7页
Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University
基金
黑龙江省第六次人口普查招标课题(2012A06)
黑龙江省哲学社会研究规划重大决策咨询项目(14G001)
关键词
人口老龄化
时空演变
地理加权回归
影响因素
黑龙江省
Population aging
Spatial-temporal change
geographical weighted regression
Influencing factors
Heilongjiang province
