摘要
为研究水下采油树系统油气泄漏问题,预防重大安全事故的发生,利用故障树与贝叶斯网络相结合的方法,建立水下采油树系统泄漏事件的贝叶斯模型,实现对系统的风险评估。融合先验数据和贝叶斯理论,计算出系统故障的概率分布,并计算底事件的重要度因子,找出系统相对薄弱环节,实现对水下采油树系统泄漏事故风险的分析。研究结果表明:采用故障树模型和贝叶斯理论的方法,可以有效地克服传统故障树分析的局限性,而且分析结果与历史统计经验吻合,验证了贝叶斯网络方法在评估采油树系统泄漏风险分析方面的可行性。
In order to study the problem of oil leakage in subsea X-tree system and prevent the occurrence of major safety accidents,the Bayesian model of subsea X-Tree system 1 network.Combining the prior data with Bayesian theory, the eakage was established combining the fault tree and Bayesian probability distribution of system failure, as well as the impor- tance factor of each event were calculated, and the weak parts of the system were found out, the risk analysis of subsea X-Tree system leakage accident was realized.The results show that the fault tree model and Bayesian method can effectively overcome the limitations of the traditional fault tree analysis method, and the analysis results are in good agreement with the historical statistical experience, which proves the feasibility of the Bayesian network method in evaluating the leakage risk analysis of the tree system.
出处
《润滑与密封》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期109-114,129,共7页
Lubrication Engineering
基金
国家工信部海洋工程装备科研项目(联装[2013]420)
