摘要
本文利用2009—2014年上海市科技企业统计的面板数据,结合双重差分模型对"营改增"的减税效应以及对企业创新的激励效果进行实证分析,结果发现:(1)"营改增"在短期内减税效果较小,而在长期则表现出显著且大幅度的减税效果;(2)"营改增"增强企业对未来现金流的乐观预期,进而提高企业在政策实施后短期内的研发(R&D)强度,这也导致企业在2014年的研发强度骤减;(3)与大企业相比,小微企业受政策冲击的影响更大,并且自我调整能力也相对较弱。因此,政府在颁布对企业可能造成较大影响的政策时,应该做好准备采取其他措施对可能的不良效果进行补救,尤其是针对小微企业;同时,企业应该谨慎地规划研发投资,因时制宜地开展研发创新活动。
This paper used the evidence from technology firms in Shanghai and combined the difference-indifference model to analyze whether the policy of replacing business tax with value-added tax cut firms' tax burden and inspired the innovation. The results are shown as follows.( 1) The policy has limited effect on firms 'tax reduction in the short term but has much significant and substantial effect in the long term.( 2) The policy enhances firms' optimistic expectation on the future cash flow,thus improving firms' short-term R&D intensity,which also leads to sharp decrease of R&D intensity.( 3) Compared to large firms,small and micro firms bear greater impact by policy shocks,whose self-adjustment ability is relatively weak in the meantime. Overall,when the government launch some policy which may cause greater impact on firms,it should also be prepared to take other measures to remedy some possible adverse effects,especially for small and micro firms. Meanwhile,firms should be more cautious when planning R&D investment and carefully carry out the R&D activities.
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期87-95,共9页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"基于产业链技术链与价值链融合的文化科技创新研究"(12&ZD026)
国家自然科学基金项目"运营与创新管理"(71421002)
上海市软科学基金课题"基于知识竞争力评价‘具有全球影响力的科技创新中心’建设研究"(15692180400)
关键词
营改增
双重差分模型
减税
企业创新
to replace business tax with value-added tax
difference-in-difference method
tax reduction
firm R&D
