摘要
通过地理加权回归模型,以中国8个城市群中具有代表性的13个城市为样本,对其在三个五年规划期内碳排放影响的时空差异进行实证研究。结果表明：工业结构对城市碳排放的影响程度总体呈下降趋势,“十二五”末期小幅反弹;城市化水平对碳排放的影响呈现由正到负,再由负变正的V型变化,这是城市化初期的典型特征。能源强度对碳排放影响的空间分布发生了两次明显位移,充分体现了政策效应的空间差异性。外贸程度对成渝及珠三角等南方城市群碳排放的影响较为显著,外贸程度越高,对碳排放的影响越大。制定碳减排政策应因地制宜,因城而异,经济发达的城市承担更多的减排义务,带动经济欠发达城市协同发展;城市群内合理配置要素,实现低碳化流动和转移。
This paper empirically studies the time and space differences about the influence of carbon emissions during the three-five-years plan based on 13 sample cities in the eight urban agglomerations of China by the geographically weighted re- gression model. Results show that the impact of industrial structure on urban carbon emissions is generally declining, with a slight rebound at the end of the 12th Five-Years Plan period. The impact of urbanization level on carbon emissions is from positive to negative and return from negative to positive. It is typical of the early stages of urbanization. The spatial distribu- tion of the impact of energy intensity on carbon emissions has occurred two significant d!splacements, fully reflects the policy effects of spatial differences. The impact of foreign trade on carbon emissions in the southern cities such as chengdu- chongqing and the Pearl River Delta is more significant, the higher the degree of foreign trade, the greater the impact on carbon emissions. Therefore, the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies should be adapted to local conditions, vary from city to city, that is to say economically developed cities should undertake more emission reduction obligations, so as to promote the coordinated development of economically underdeveloped cities ; It should make Rational allocation of ele- ments within the urban agglomeration to achieve low-carbon flow and transfer.
出处
《软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期109-113,共5页
Soft Science
基金
国家社会科学基金面上项目(14BJY018)
青岛市社会科学规划项目(QDSKL130132)
关键词
时空演变
碳排放
影响因素
地理加权回归
城市群
Spatial-Temporal evolution
carbon emissions
impact factors
geographical weighted regression
urban ag-glomeration
