摘要
对工业生产能源排放量的优化预测,能够更为合理循环利用各种能源。对能源排放量的预测,需要借助各类能源的能源排放系数,计算获得工业生产过程的能源量,完成工业生产能源排放量的预测。传统方法先将时间序列数据进行回归,得到工业生产过程整体能源排放趋势,但忽略了计算获得工业生产过程的能源量,导致预测精度偏低。提出基于马尔科夫的工业生产过程能源排放量优化预测方法。上述方法对工业生产过程能源排放的因素进行分解,预测获得未来一段年份的最优经济增长率,依据历年工业生产过程中能源强度随时间的演化特征,获得能源强度的下降趋势,借助各类能源的能源排放系数,计算获得各类别工业生产过程能源品种的能源量,汇总得到整个作业过程总能源排放量,完成能源排放量优化预测。仿真证明,所提方法预测精确度高,可为明晰工业作业过程减排目标提供有效途径。
ABSTRACT：An optimal prediction method for energy emission in industrial production process based on Markov is proposed. The factors of energy emission in industrial production process are decomposed, and optimal economic growth rate in next few years is predicted. According to evolution characteristics, the downtrend of energy intensity is obtained and a variety of energy sources of energy types in industrial production process with various types of energy source emission coefficient are calculated. Finally, total energy emissions of whole operation process are obtained, and optimal prediction of energy emissions is completed. Simulation result shows that the proposed method has high prediction accuracy. It can provide an effective way to clarify emission reduction targets in industrial production process
出处
《计算机仿真》
北大核心
2018年第1期428-431,440,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学研究基金(SK2016006)
关键词
工业生产
能源排放
优化预测
Industrial production
Energy emission
Optimal prediction
