摘要
在对农村人口空心化的内涵进行剖析的基础上,基于中国县域人口普查数据,对农村人口空心化程度进行综合测评,运用核密度估计、ESDA-GIS等方法对其时空分异规律进行研究,并对其形成机理进行了探讨。研究发现:(1)中国县域农村人口空心化现象普遍存在,总体呈现中部>东部>西部的分布态势,高空心化区域主要分布于胡焕庸线以东、秦岭—淮河以南以及黑龙江—内蒙古一线,低空心化区域集中分布于青、甘、川、滇等省份及黄河中下游地区,2000—2010年空心化程度呈现快速上升趋势,空心化率上升了7.14个百分点。(2)农村人口空心化程度呈全局强空间相关性,空间差异变大,空间集聚特征加强,高—高型集聚区域集中分布于东南沿海、川渝及长江中下游局部地区;低—低型集聚区域集中分布于新、青、藏三省及云、贵、川交接带。(3)城乡二元结构以及城乡二元结构下的制度体系、城乡社会经济发展差异及其带来的城乡地域功能差异、农村自身的资源禀赋与区位条件三者共同作用于农村人口空心化。
Based on the dissection of the connotation of rural hollowing and the county census data,this paper conducts a comprehensive assessment on rural hollowing level. We use Kernel Density Estimation method and ESDA-GIS to systematically analyze its spatial-temporal diversity and its formation mechanism. We found that： 1） Rural hollowing is a universal phenomenon. The distribution of the rural hollowing out county in central region is higher than east region while its distribution in the west region is the lowest. Areas with high hollowing rate are mainly in the east of Hu＇s line,south of Qinling-Huaihe and Heilongjiang,Inner Mongolia. Areas with low hollowing rate mainly lie in Qinghai,Gansu,Sichuan and Yunnan province and along the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. From year 2000 to 2010,the phenomenon was deteriorated,with the percentage risen by 7. 14%. 2） Rural hollowing has strong spatial correlation, with spatial difference enlarged and aggregation enforced. High-high aggregations are distributed mainly in south-east coastal areas,Sichuan-Chongqing region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River areas. Low-low aggregations are mainly in Xinjiang Autonomous Region,Qinghai province and Tibet. There are also some aggregations in the junction of Yunnan,Guizhou and Sichuan province.3） Urban-rural dual structure and its relevant institutional system,function differences resulted from economic development disparity,resource endowment and location conditions of the rural areas affect the rural hollowing out.
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期28-37,共10页
Population & Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"基于农户视角的空心村形成机理与治理机制创新研究"(12BGL102)
国家自然科学基金项目"基于高分遥感与GIS的我国农村空心化演进机制及调控研究"(41371184)
关键词
农村人口空心化
人口流动
时空分异
形成机理
rural hollowing
population mobility
spatial-temporal diversity
formation mechanism
