摘要
采用空间自相关和多元回归模型等数理统计方法,分析了2003年国家实施振兴东北战略以来吉林省粮食生产的时空演化特征.结果表明:2003—2015年吉林省玉米种植比重增长最快,最终在粮食结构中占三分之二以上,大豆种植比重呈现倒"W"型下降,水稻的种植比重变化波动较小;吉林省粮食生产表现出明显由低产作物向中高产作物转变的趋势,大豆地位下降明显,粮食内部结构以玉米为主,结构较为单一;多元回归分析表明,农业投入、经济环境和科技贡献率是影响吉林省粮食生产格局演变的主要因素.
The changes of spatial-temporal pattern of grain production in Jilin province is studied using multiple regression model and spatial autocorrelation analysis model since 2003 implementation of strategy of Northeast revitalization. Results show that the grain planting area in Jilin province and the total yield increased year by year,maize yield which increased most quickly,and ultimately accounted for more than two-thirds of the grain structure,the proportion of soybean cultivation showed "down W " type decreased,the proportion of rice planting changes in the smaller fluctuations; grain production in Jilin province showed trend of high-yielding crops instead of low yield crop,soybean status decreased especially significantly; the grain planting structure has been changed corn dominate which shows relatively single; the regression analysis of the three-point multiple regression in the grain structure shows that the agricultural investment,the economic environment and the contribution rate of science and technology are the main factors influencing the grain production pattern of Jilin Province.
出处
《吉林师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第1期121-128,共8页
Journal of Jilin Normal University:Natural Science Edition
基金
中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDBS-SSW-SQC)
中国科学院重点部署项目(KSZD-EW-Z-021-03)
中国科学院重点部署项目(KFZD-SW-314)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41601124)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771179)
关键词
粮食生产
时空格局
结构调整
多元回归模型
吉林省
grain production
spatial-temporal pattern
structure adjustment
multiple regression model
Jilin Province
