摘要
首先,基于安徽省1990-2015年的各项环境污染指标和人均GDP数据,建立VAR模型并通过Johansen协整检验得出环境污染各指标和人均GDP指标间存在长期稳定的协整关系。其次,建立VEC模型分析各变量在短期波动中偏离其长期均衡关系的程度及短期调整方向。再次,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析安徽省经济发展和环境污染之间的双向关系,得出了工业废水和烟尘排放是影响安徽经济增长的主要环境因素。最后,针对以上分析结果提出了相关政策建议:(1)推进河长制来治理工业废水的排放,根据造成烟尘排放的不同原因采用不同的方法治理;(2)借环境保护税开征的契机,通过征收环保税,减轻污染物排放量;(3)提高监管透明度,调动人民的参与性。
Firstly, this paper is based on the Anhui province 1990-2015 environmental pollution indicators and GDP per capita da- ta to establish VAR model and abtain that there is a stable long-term cointegration relationship of each environmental pollution index and per capita GDP index by the Johansen cointegration test.Secondly,the VEC model is established to analyze the degree of devia- tion from the long-run equilibrium relationship and the short-term adjustment direction.Thirdly,using the impulse response function and variance decomposition to analyze the bidirectional relationship between economic development and environmental pollution in Anhui Province,it is concluded that industrial wastewater and soot emissions are the main environmental factors affecting the economic growth of Anhui.Finally, based on the above analysis results and puts forward relevant policy suggestions：（1） to promote the long riv- er system to control the discharge of industrial wastewater,according to the different causes of dust emission by different treatment methods; （2）by the environmental tax levy opportunity, through environmental taxes,reduce pollutant emissions; （3） improve regulatory transparency,arouse people＇s participation
出处
《铜陵学院学报》
2017年第5期8-13,共6页
Journal of Tongling University
关键词
经济增长
环境污染
VAR模型
economic growth
environmental pollution
VAR model
