摘要
做好阶段性的飞行训练量预测工作,对制定合理的飞行计划,安排合适的训练量,防止出现人机配比失衡,训练效率下降,保证足够的训练安排裕度,安全高效的飞行训练等具有十分重要的意义。为了对飞行训练量进行准确预测,针对某飞行学院的飞行训练统计数据,提出一种基于GM(1,1)灰色预测的残差修正模型,通过运用传统模型和改进后的模型分别对该飞行学院的训练量进行预测,得到对应的预测精度。最后的结果表明,改进后的预测模型能够弥补传统灰色预测模型的不足,可以达到较高的预测精度,能够有效地对该飞行学院的飞行训练量进行预测。
Prediction of flight training load in different stages is of great significance for working out reasonable flight plans,arranging appropriate training load,avoiding human-machine imbalance,keeping training efficiency,and ensuring adequate training margin. To accurately predict flight training load,a modified residual error mode based on GM( 1,1) grey prediction is proposed according to statistical data of flight training quantity in a flight university.The training load of the flight university is predicted through the traditional model and the improved model separately,and the corresponding prediction precisions are obtained. The final results indicate that the improved prediction model can make up for the shortcomings of the traditional grey prediction model and produce the higher prediction precision. Therefore,the model can be used to effectively predict the flight training load of the university.
出处
《西安航空学院学报》
2018年第1期78-82,共5页
Journal of Xi’an Aeronautical Institute
基金
国家自然科学基金民航联合基金(U1533127)
四川省科技支撑项目基金(2015GZ0307)
中国民用航空飞行学院科技支撑项目(J2014-03)
中国民用航空飞行学院学生基金项目(X2016-29)
关键词
飞行训练
灰色预测模型
残差修正模型
预测
flight training
grey prediction model
modified residual error mode
prediction
