摘要
2017年,从通胀率、国内生产总值增长率等主要经济指标看,俄罗斯宏观经济形势给人的直观印象好于预期。但深度观察则不难发现,事实上俄罗斯经济仍然面临相当严重的挑战,形势不容乐观。以往的经验表明,俄罗斯存在通胀波动或者通胀变化无常的可能性。此外,2017年俄罗斯失业率的下降并不完全与就业岗位的增加有关,相当程度上是其适龄劳动力人数减少的结果。失业率指标的改善也存在不均衡的表现。2017年尽管实际工资收入出现小幅增长,但仍未能逆转居民实际可支配收入下降的态势。普京已经决定参加2018年总统大选,胜出连任毫无悬念。但在普京即将迎来的第四个总统任期中,俄罗斯的经济前景却存在不确定性,甚至充满变数。把经济搞上去,势必将是普京总统新任期的重中之重。重构国家管理体系,努力改善企业的营商环境,很有可能成为普京新政振兴经济的重头戏。
Russia＇s macro economic indicators, such as inflation rate and GDP growth rate, gave a better visual impression than expected. But it is not hard to see that the Russian economy is still facing serious challenges and the situation is not optimistic. Past experience has shown that Russia has the potential for inflation turbulence or volatile inflation. Moreover, the decline in the unemployment rate in Russia in 2017 is not entirely related to the increase in job creation, which is partly the result of a reduction in the number of working-age workers. The improvement in the unemployment rate also has uneven performance. Despite modest increases in real wages in 2017, it has failed to reverse the decline in real disposable incomes of residents. Putin has decided to run for President in 2018 and he will win out with no suspense. But Russia＇s economic outlook is uncertain during the Putin’s fourth term as President. Getting the economy right will be a top priority for Putin＇s new term. The reconstruction of the state management system and improvement of the business environment are likely to be a major part of Putin＇s new policies to revitalize the economy.
出处
《俄罗斯学刊》
2018年第1期5-13,共9页
Academic Journal of Russian Studies
