摘要
本文基于世代交叠模型的分析框架,从理论层面论证了政府债务对经济增长的影响存在非线性效应。当经济增长率高于利率时,政府债务对经济增长具有正向效应;当经济增长率低于利率时,政府债务对经济增长的影响为负。在此基础上,本文运用1980—2014年97个国家的面板数据分别估算了总体样本、欧元区国家和G7国家及新兴经济体的政府债务对经济增长影响的转折点。研究结果表明:总体样本国家的政府债务转折点为95.56%~102.68%,但是政府债务阈值的大小在欧元区国家和G7国家、新兴经济体之间存在显著差异。欧元区国家和G7国家的政府债务点为111.42%~128.37%,而新兴经济体的政府债务阈值为92.69%~110.68%,欧元区国家和G7国家政府对债务的承受能力明显高于新兴经济体。
On the basis of an overlapping generations model, this paper shows that government debt has a nonlinear effect on economic growth. If the growth rate is greater than the interest rate, government debt will have a positive effect on economic growth. On the contrary, if the growth rate is less than the interest rate, the government debt will have a negative effect on the growth rate. Besides, the paper also uses the panel data of 97 countries between 1980 and 2014 to calculate the government debt turning points based on the full samples and the samples of euro area countries as well as G7 countries, and the emerging markets respectively. The empirical results demonstrate that the government debt turning point in the overall samples is between 95.56% and 102.68%. However, the government debt threshold in the samples of the euro zone countries as well as the G7 countries and that in the emerging market varies greatly, with the former between 111.42% and 128.37%, and the latter between 92.69% and 110.68%, which obviously shows that the debt intolerance in the enro zone countries together with the G7 countries is greater than that in emerging markets.
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期54-65,共12页
Studies of International Finance
基金
国家社科基金一般项目"汇率不对称变动
异质性传导与中国对外贸易结构演进研究"(16BJL087)资助
关键词
政府债务
经济增长
世代交叠模型
非线性效应
Government Debt
Economic Growth
Overlapping Generations Model
Nonlinear Effect
