摘要
针对海上底水油藏特高含水期实际递减率与理论递减率差异较大,油田开发后期产量预测困难的问题,应用VBA编程,建立了适用于底水油藏的生产概率模型,通过数理统计方法研究了油藏开发中自然递减率的累积概率分布规律。结合渤海Q油田底水油藏油井实际生产资料,分析了不同开发规模对储采比、采收率、含水率等参数的影响,考虑海上油田平台使用寿命,确定了海上底水油藏高效开发的采液速度下限。研究结果表明,该方法得到的自然递减规律在含水率为95%以下时基本维持稳定,当含水率达到95%时,自然递减率会迅速降低,与之前的研究成果存在差异。结合储采比、采收率、含水率、平台使用寿命等参数的影响,建议海上底水油藏应以不小于动用储量30%的采液速度进行开发。该研究对认识油田开发规律及后期产量预测具有重要意义,为油田制订合理产能目标指明方向。
In view of the great difference between actual and theoretical production decline rate, a production probability model for bottom-aquifer oil reservoir is established by VBA programming to improve the challenge in latestage production forecast in offshore oilfield. The cumulative probability distribution of natural production decline rate is researched by mathematical statistics. The field production history of a bottom-aquifer reservoir in Bohai Q Oilfield is used to gain the effects of different development scales on reserve-production ratio, recovery factor, water-cut, etc. The lower limit of liquid recovery-rate for the efficient development of offshore bottom-aquifer reservoir is determined by considering the service life of offshore platform. Research indicates that the natural production rate generally remains stable when the water-cut is less than 95%. The natural production rate rapidly decreases in case of water-cut reaching 95%, which differs from that of previous researches. A liquid recovery-rate no less than 30% of producing reserve is recommended by comprehensively considering reserve-production ratio, recovery factor, water-cut, offshore platform service life and other aspects. This research could provide certain significance for reservoir development performance understanding, /ate-stage production forecast and reasonable productivity optimization.
出处
《特种油气藏》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期85-89,共5页
Special Oil & Gas Reservoirs
基金
国家科技重大专项"渤海油田加密调整及提高采收率油藏工程技术示范"(2016ZX05058-001)
"海上稠油油田开发模式研究"(2016ZX05025-001)
关键词
海上油田
底水油藏
自然递减率
数理统计
累积概率分布
随机抽取
渤海油田
offshore oilfield
oil reservoir with bottom- aquifer
natural production rate
mathematical statistics
cumulative probability distribution
Bohai Oilfield
