摘要
利用山西省50个气象站1972—2012年春季和夏季降水量资料,基于标准化降水指数SPI,从山西省整体干旱趋势、干旱面积变化趋势、干旱强度变化趋势、干旱持续时间特征和干旱空间变化等方面,研究了山西省近40年的春季夏季干旱特征,同时结合玉米产量资料,揭示了SPI指数表征干旱特征的优势。结果表明,春季SPI呈增大趋势,气候倾向率为0.15·10a^(-1),有湿润的倾向,干旱强度和干旱面积均呈下降趋势,1972—1981年山西省春季平均干旱面积为42%,而近10年为26%,表明山西省春季干旱程度有减轻趋向,但区域性或持续性极端干旱事件频发,因此,春季的干旱并未得到有效缓解。夏季SPI呈减少趋势,气候倾向率为-0.14·10a^(-1),有干旱的倾向,但干旱强度呈下降趋势,气候倾向率为-0.055·10a^(-1);1972—1981年夏季平均干旱面积为11%,而近10年上升到14%,但较少出现区域性或持续性干旱事件。夏季干旱特别是中等以上强度的干旱显著影响玉米产量,而春季干旱对产量影响较小。SPI值与玉米产量的相关系数要高于降水量,表明基于标准化降水指标的干旱分析在农业生产方面更具指导意义。
Using precipitation of spring and summer of 50 stations in Shanxi province in 1972—2012,the drought characteristic of spatial-temporal,area,strength,and duration were analyzed based on Standardization precipitation Index SPI. The results showed that the SPI was increased by 0.15·10 a^(-1) in spring from 1972 to 2012,drought intensity and area showed a downward trend,average drought area was 42% in 1972—1981,whereas was26% in recent 10 years. These results suggested that spring drought has a growing trend,however,the regions that are prone to extreme drought events of regional and sustainability in spring. Summer SPI was decreased by 0.14·10 a^(-1) from 1972—2012,however,drought intensity showed a downward trend by-0. 055 with every decade has shown a marked trend than spring. Average drought area in summer increased from 11% in 1972—1981 to 14% in recent 10 years. Maize yield and rainfall are closely related. Summer droughts,especially in the moderate drought significantly affected maize yields,but production was less affected by spring drought. The correlation coefficient of SPI values and maize yield is higher than that of precipitation,suggesting that the drought analysis of the standardized precipitation index can be used in agricultural production.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期230-236,265,共8页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
山西省科学技术发展计划项目(20130312012)
