摘要
在外部环境相对稳定,且内部战略相对理性的情况下,为什么一个高速崛起的大国会突然偏离原有的理性战略而去追求新生的孤立战略目标?文章认为,这种战略偏离源于自我身份重构过程中产生的身份压力,而身份压力则来自于对自我身份的不恰当重构,这是一种内生观念性崛起困境。通过对三国时期蜀汉与江东两大集团崛起过程的比较研究,文章验证了关于内生观念性困境的两种假设:(1)自我身份重构所产生的身份压力区间与对原理性战略的偏离程度之间存在因果关系;(2)在大国因实力上升而进行的自我身份重构中,越倾向于认为"我外皆敌",越容易发生对原理性战略的偏离,追求新生的孤立战略目标,进而造成实力的无谓消耗;越倾向于认为"我外皆人",则越容易坚持原理性战略,抵制新生孤立战略目标的战略诱惑,从而实现持续崛起。因此,所谓"蜀汉困境"是指大国因"我外皆敌"的自我身份重构产生巨大身份压力,在战略诱惑下偏离原理性战略,进而导致战略失控,甚至崛起势头的丧失。最后,文章就此探讨了中国在高速崛起过程中的自我身份重构问题。
When faced with a stable external environment,and a rather rational domestic strategic context,why would a rapidly rising power suddenly depart from its original rational strategy in favor of a new strategy characterized by isolationist objectives?It is argued here that these types of strategic shifts are rooted in identity pressure generated during the process of the re-construction of self-identity.Identity pressure in turn stems from contradictions generated by the process of identity re-formation.As such,the dilemma faced by a rising power is rooted in its shifting internal selfrecognition.Through a comparison of the processes undergone by two rising powers during the end of East Han Dynasty,namely the two major states of Shuhan and Jiangdong,this article illustrates two assumptions associated with the internal value dilemma:(1)there exists a causal relationship between the level of identity pressure generated in the process of self-identity re-formation and the extent of the gap between the original and new strategies;(2)In the case of major powers whose self-identity is re-formulated due to a rise in power,the greater the extent to which such a state sees the other as enemies,the more likely that there will be a deviation from the original ideal strategy,and that it will pursue isolationist policy objectives,which will unnecessarily cause the depletion of state power;on the other hand,the greater the extent to which the other is seen as potential ally,the easier it will be to maintain the original ideal strategy and accordingly the easier it will be to resist the temptation to adopt new isolationist strategy objectives,and as such realize a sustained rise.As such,the so-called"Shuhan Dilemma"refers to great power experiencing tremendous identity pressure as a result of a re-formation of self-identity characterized by a vision of the other as enemy.Under such situations,temptation to depart from the original ideal strategy is great,to the point that it results in a loss of strategic control,or even the loss of the ability of the state to rise.This article also considers this in terms of China's own process of self-identity re-formation within the context of its rapid rise.
出处
《当代亚太》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期30-66,共37页
Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies
基金
教育部重大攻关项目"中国特色大国外交"(项目编号:15JZD032)的资助
关键词
高速崛起
理性战略
身份重构
身份压力
Rapidly Rising Power
Ideal Strategy
Identity Re-Construction
Identity Pressure
