摘要
灰色模型有严格的理论基础,最大的优点是实用,用灰色模型预测的结果比较稳定,不仅适用于大数据量的预测,也适应与数据量较小的预测,预测精度较高,无须像其他预测方法要么需要数据量大且规律性强,要么需要凭经验给出系数。目前,灰色模型GM(1,1)已广泛应用于工程技术、社会、经济、农业、生态、环境等各种系统的预测中。因适应贫信息,抗噪声能力强,显示出比传统预测方法更大的优越性,利用灰色系统理论,建立GM(1,1)模型模拟洛阳市灾变年份,经Matlab求解得到时间响应序列函数:^x(1)0(k+1)=1387.818e0.00905 k,Δ=0.002。通过计算机仿真发现预测值和实测值拟合良好,具有很高的精度。根据所建立的GM(1,1)模型以及模型分析,来预测未来洛阳市旱灾发生年份,得出结论洛阳在2142年、2162年、2181年、2201年出现旱灾情况,以期积极主动地采取措施进行防旱抗旱工作提供科学依据。
The grey model has a strict theoretical basis,the biggest advantage is practical,predicted by grey model prediction result is relatively stable,not only for the large amount of data,but also to adapt to small and predict the amount of data,the prediction accuracy is high,not like the other prediction methods either require a large amount of data and the strong regularity,either by experience this coefficient. At present,the grey model GM（ 1,1） has been widely used in the prediction of engineering,society,economy,agriculture,ecology,environment and other systems. Due to poor information,strong anti noise ability,shows more advantages than the traditional forecasting method,using grey system theory,the establishment of GM（ 1,1） model to simulate the Luoyang disaster year,obtained by Matlab time response sequence function：,.By computer simulation,it is found that the predicted and measured values fit well and have high accuracy. According to the GM（ 1,1）model and the model analysis,to forecast Luoyang City drought happens in the future,concluded in 2142,2162,2181,2201 drought situation,in order to actively take measures to provide a scientific basis for drought and drought.
出处
《地下水》
2017年第6期191-194,共4页
Ground water
