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基于向量自回归模型和误差修正模型的房产税、住房供给、住房需求和房产价格的关系 被引量:2

The Relationship Between LTSA、LSSA、LDSA、LHPSA on Vector Autoregression Model and Error Correction Model
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摘要 研究房产税开征对房地产市场的影响,不仅能使人更好地了解和懂得房产税的精髓,为后续研究提供理论参考,还能对探讨如何有效调控房地产市场有着深远的意义,对确保中国经济又好又快发展,社会和谐稳定,维护个人尊严和实现中华民族的中国梦都有积极的社会意义.采用的是2007年01月到2016年12月十年间的月度宏观经济数据,在经过数据处理消除通货膨胀、季节性等影响后,运用EVIEWS6.0软件对数据进行平稳性检验和协整检验,得出各变量数据之间存在协整关系后通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型和误差修正(VEC)模型来研究房产税(T)、住房供给(s)、住房需求(D)和房产价格(HP)之间的相互影响关系. The effect of property tax on the real estate market, the essence of not only can make people better understand and know the real estate tax, to provide theoretical reference for further studies, but also to explore how to effectively control the real estate market has farreaching significance, China to ensure sound and rapid economic development, social harmony and stability, and safeguard the dignity of the individual the Chinese people realize the dream has positive social significance China. The author use ten years of monthly macroeconomic data from Jan 2007 to December 2016. To eliminate the inflation and seasonal effect, the author processes all the data first.Then the author will use EVIEWS 6.0 software for data stationary test and co integration test. The empirical result suggests that there exists co integration relationship between each VARiable data. Thus through the establishment of vector autoregressive (VAR) model and error correction (VEC) model, the author will analyze of the impact of China's real estate tax reform on real estate market.
作者 林毅 陈晓曼
出处 《数学的实践与认识》 北大核心 2018年第5期101-107,共7页 Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金 重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究重点项目:重庆市房地产泡沫测度研究(14SKS07,2014.5-2018.5)
关键词 房产税 房地产市场 VAR模型 property tax real estate market VAR model
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