摘要
分析了灰色模型预测路面使用性能的可行性，选取陕西省某条高速公路路段PCI、PSSI、RQI和SRI四项指标2012年至2016年历史数据建立了无偏灰色预测模型，引入残差对无偏灰色预测模型进行改进，运用马尔可夫状态转移矩阵来判断残差预测值在k≥n时的符号，建立了改进无偏灰色预测模型，减化了计算步骤，提高了预测精度。并对该路段2017年路面使用性能各评价指标进行了预测，根据预测结果提出了相应的养护措施。
The feasibility of the grey model prediction pavement performance is analyzed by selecting the tradi- tional historical data of four indicators PCI, PSSI, RQI and SRI in one of the Shaanxi province highway sections from 2012 to 2016 to establish unbiased grey model, the unbiased grey model is improved by introducing residual error, and the improved grey model is established by the Marov state transition matrix to determine the symbol of the resid- ual prediction when k _〉 n ,which reduces the calculation steps and improves the prediction accuracy, meanwhile the asphalt pavement performance evaluation index of the section in 2017 is forecasted and the corresponding mainte- nance measures are also put forward according to the results of the prediction.
出处
《陕西交通职业技术学院学报》
2018年第1期5-10,共6页
Journal of Shaanxi College of Communication Technology
