摘要
近年来,虽然世界经济持续低迷,但中国的石油消费还是在稳步增加,石油战略储备也连年加速,因此,这就需要中国石油工业在世界的能源大河中加速向前。而频繁的油价波动直接影响到了中国石油工业乃至中国实体经济的发展,为此,研究油价波动对我国石油行业的影响具有现实意义。本文首先在对国际油价波动历史与现状分析的基础上,采用定量和定性相结合的方法分析国际油价波动的影响因素;其次从石油工业发展环境、投资和业绩方面分析油价波动对其影响,构建了国际油价与石油公司净资产收益率(ROE)的二次模型,结果表明油价在70~90美元/桶区间时公司效益最好,业务范围广的企业抗风险能力也相对较强;最后提出我国石油工业在此轮低油价下的应对策略。
The oil consumption of China is increasing steadily and the strategic oil reserves have accelerated although the world economy remains in the doldrums in recent years.Therefore,it is required to accelerate the development speed of the oil industry in China.The fluctuations in oil prices directly affect the development of the oil industry and even the real economy.Therefore,the study of the impact of oil prices on the oil industry of China has a practical significance.This paper analyzed the influence factors of international oil price fluctuation by combining the quantitative and qualitative methods based on the analysis of the history and current situation of the international oil price fluctuation.Analysis of the impact of oil price fluctuations on the oil industry from the aspects of development environment,investment and construction performance,the model of the international oil price and oil company's return on equity(ROE)has been structured.The results showed that the best benefit was the oil price achieved $70~90/barrel range and the enterprise's ability to resist risk was relatively strong.Finally put forward countermeasures under the low oil prices.
出处
《非常规油气》
2018年第1期111-116,100,共7页
Unconventional Oil & Gas
关键词
油价波动
石油工业
影响因素
回归分析
对策
oil price fluctuation
oil industry
influencing factors
regression analysis
countermeasures
